Total Performance Data tips

Published 09.44 02/06- all selections online

Ollie Sangster has sent out five horses who were seeking hat-tricks in All-Weather Handicaps and four of them have won. My first selection on Tuesday comes at Wolverhampton in the Cavani Signature Style Handicap (5.24) - KAKIRRA looks highly likely to be the fifth to continue Sangster's trend and I struggle to find reasons to oppose him.

He recorded a top speed of 37.4 mph when winning over this course and distance back in early May and the form of that race has worked out very well, with all three runners that have reappeared going in on their next starts.

He followed that up by winning over the 10-furlong trip at Bath where he controlled the race from the front and still managed to run the fastest final furlong in 12.45s. He is now 13 lbs higher than for the first of those wins, but since stepping up in trip on his handicap debut, he has been transformed and all the time he is still able to race in Class 6 company - I want to have him on side.

Heading to Newcastle for the Penny Car Washes Handicap (8.15), Military Leader took a while to get off the mark, but he has been making up for lost time having won his last two starts for Philip Makin. He controlled the race from the front at Thirsk and just held on from the closers. That form has worked out reasonably well as the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th have all hit the frame on their next starts.

However, he recorded a finishing speed of 105%, the next four horses to chase him home all recorded finishing speeds of 107% or more, with the third placed horse (Rajapour) coming in at 110.6%. Rajapour has a habit of doing that in his races, but it did lead me to the conclusion that Military Leader was ideally placed at Thirsk and having gone up 3 lbs at a track with a stiffer finish, I wanted to try and take him on.

I came down on AMERICAN STATE for Declan Caroll. He has already won twice on the tapeta this season, both times with Stevie Donohoe on board, so the jockey booking was the first plus. I don’t think that Tom Marquand did anything wrong on his latest start at Newbury, but he was further back than ideal and with a wall of horses in front of him, the selection had no opportunity to lengthen when the gaps didn’t come.

I’d prefer to judge him on his victory at Southwell in April, where he stayed on strongly to win by a length and three-quarters. His average stride frequency figure of 2.32 per second was considerably higher than the expected average for a winner over the course and distance at Southwell. Given that he was above that race emerge figure for each of the final 3 furlongs, I would be fairly confident that he will stay the mile on this stiffer track.

Only 4 lbs above his last winning mark, I thought there was some value in his price if he was forgiven for the run at Newbury last time.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.