Total Performance Data tips

Published 08.46 - 08/05

William Haggas won the Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (1.50) with Power Fizz last season, and I can see the case for him repeating the dose this year with Albaydaa. She was drawn on the far side of the field on her return at Newmarket, and she did run on well in the closing stages to suggest that this 7-furlong trip would suit. However, she did have the eventual winner, Sovereign Spell, to track into the race, and she was still slower than him in the final furlong despite the race having a finishing speed of 99.3%. 

She has a rating of 91 and is presumably thought better than that, which she may well be, but this is a difficult task and her novice form would suggest that mark is fair, but no more than that. I thought there was an angle in this race to bet each-way against the head of the market, where the runners appear to have been priced on their potential and connections rather than their handicap marks and what they have achieved. 

It is probably “famous last words” with this approach, but there is an interesting angle with the data for the Ian Williams trained AQUA BEAR and at the time of writing he is one of the outsiders of the field. He failed to win in four starts for Adrian McGuinness in Ireland, but he split a pair of horses that are now rated 87 on his final Irish start at Dundalk in October. 

Switched to Ian Williams, he made a winning debut in a Newcastle maiden race in November when sent off an 11/10 favourite under Dougie Costello. He recorded a top speed of 40.31 mph and was able to win eased down after consecutive furlongs between 11.4 and 11.5s. There were three subsequent winners behind him that day and he was able to win despite failing to run the fastest furlong split at any point of the race. The winning move came as he reached a peak average stride length of 7.53m for over a quarter of a mile. 

On that evidence, the straight at Ascot should suit and a mark of 82 may not be beyond him. You can back Ian Williams runners at Ascot in April and May blind to a small profit and they return at 1.45 A/E. He may well bump into a couple of horses that are bound for the Royal meeting, and we are taking his fitness on trust, but the yard had two handicap winners on Wednesday and appear to be in good form. 

I thought Aqua Bear was simply too big to ignore and he is likely to run his race, which is enough to persuade me to take a swing at his price each-way.

Over on the Roodee, the Ladbrokes Chester Cup (3.05) is an incredibly difficult puzzle to try to solve and the last place that I thought I would be looking for the winner is at Sedgefield, but I can build a decent case for CHEMISTRY and that is where he ran on his latest start. 

In his younger days, he was a Listed winner in Ireland for Aidan O’Brien. Having missed a year, he returned for Ivan Furtado in October at Pontefract, but he largely struggled in five runs for the yard, mainly on the all-weather. However, he subsequently switched to Jennie Candlish and made a winning debut over hurdles in a maiden hurdle at Sedgefield in April. That probably wasn’t the deepest race. Though, he recorded the fastest top speed in the field and was over half a second faster than the runner-up over the last quarter of a mile to win by a length and three quarters. 

Jennie Candlish has a good record with flat runners that she gets from other yards, operating at a 17% strike rate and a 1.74 A/E. That statistic wouldn’t directly apply to Chemistry given that he has had the run over hurdles, but the first point to make is that the yard know how to plan with a new recruit and by running over hurdles, his flat mark of 90 could be protected. 

The records from TPD show that the winners of races under these conditions since 2019 have recorded an average stride length of 7.1m and an average stride frequency of 2.13 strides per second. Chemistry’s expected figures are within 1% of those numbers and he has a good draw in stall 3 to help his cause. It’s much more complicated than finding the right stride figures, but he should be suited by this test and if the Candlish team have turned him around, which the signs at Sedgefield were that they might have done, he would look to be well treated on a mark of 90 based on his earlier form. 

His fourth placed finish behind Team Player at Newcastle in February, which was his final start for Ivan Furtado, has worked out well and he is 2 lbs lower here under David Probert. He is a big price for a reason, but at this stage of their careers, the vast majority of this field have no secrets from the handicapper and I thought the case that Chemistry could be capable of better was a fairly decent one based on the data. Especially given that he fits the profile of a 'typical' course and distance winner.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.