Total Performance Data tips

Published 18:30

In Newcastle's 3.47, EL MATADOR finished runner-up on his only previous start on the All-Weather at Lingfield, but he finished strongly and had the best run-out speed in the field. 

Although he hasn’t won since winning his first two starts of last season for Ralph Beckett, he has run some fine races in defeat and the 10-furlong trip seemed to stretch him at Ripon last time, especially over the undulations of the last quarter of a mile. 

His average stride frequency peaked with 2 furlongs to run and once headed, he was allowed to coast home so the fact that his run-out speed ranked only 8th is not a concern. His peak average stride length of 26.49 ft was the longest in the field at Ripon and it was a similar story at Lingfield April. 

He is a long-striding son of Lope de Vega and I think that stride pattern should be perfectly suited to a stiff mile like Newcastle. His progeny aged 4 and above have a 16% strike-rate on the tapeta, compared to 14% on the Polytrack and 12% on the turf, so i think there is very chance this is going to suit, especially given that he is a half-brother to 2 winners on an artificial surface.

Pretty Little Baby sets the standard in this fillies’ maiden (6.30) at Hamilton having finished third at Thirsk on her debut. That form took a boost when the winner (Dee’s Funny Girl) finished 6th in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and the 4th placed horse has also won since. 

Pretty Little Baby raced prominently throughout that day and she clocked consecutive sub 11s furlongs in the early part of the race. She should come on for it, but I am concerned by the way she finished her race, as her average stride frequency dropped in the final couple of furlongs. I think the stiff climb to the line at Hamilton may leave her vulnerable once again and SOVEREIGN GRACE makes plenty of appeal as an alternative. 

She finished sixth on her debut at York, but she recorded the fastest furlong of the entire race when she clocked 10.98s for the 3rd furlong and she finished her race well to be beaten 6 lengths. The winner was on the wrong side of the track in the Queen Mary last week, so we can’t really judge the form on that basis, but the case that Sovereign Grace was better than the bare result is a strong one. 

The winner and third raced prominently and Sovereign Grace was as much as half a second behind at the end of the opening quarter of a mile. She finished well and maintained an average stride frequency between 2.34 and 2.36 strides per second throughout the entire contest. Her final furlong time ranked fourth, her run-out speed ranked third and there was a general sense from the data that she would be much sharper on her second start. 

This should set up nicely for her to come with a late run and Karl Burke’s 2-year-old fillies have a 24% strike-rate on their 2nd start, compared to 15% on their racecourse debuts.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.