Total Performance Data tips

Published 13:30 - 27/10

FRIDAY 30 OCTOBER

20:55 - Race 9 - FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance

I would have liked to be writing about U.S.S. Valor, but the Champagne Stakes winner isn’t here. Even if it is disappointing, I can in part understand the decision as the horses who win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile often have a different skill set to those who compete for the Triple Crown as three-year-olds. 

His absence should leave the way clear for the Bob Baffert-trained HUGHES, who has won all four starts in California, including his last two in Grade 1 company. His victory in the Grade 1 American Pharaoh Stakes was in a time that was nearly a second under the average for winners over the course and distance, but even though he won by 6 lengths, there was a slightly underwhelming feel from the race when I reviewed the data. 

At an average of 23.57 ft, his stride length was relatively compact and was below the average for a winner over that trip on our database and neither his top speed nor late speed were particularly outstanding. However, I have had time to watch this race back and with the benefit of hindsight, I suspect that he didn’t produce any outstanding data numbers because he simply didn’t need to. 

Hughes was in a completely different league to his five rivals at Santa Anita and once he came alongside the leader around the bend, he increased his stride frequency and pulled away. He was the fastest horse on the clock for each of the final 3 furlongs, but by that stage all his rivals were slowing significantly, and he was the only one to quicken in the penultimate furlong. 

From that point onwards, Hughes had the race won and Juan Hernandez was able to allow him to canter home over the final furlong. It was a very similar story when he won the Del Mar Futurity a few weeks earlier and having won both Grade 1 races with relative ease, recording race best late and run-out speed figures in the process, there is a decent question to ask - how good could Hughes be? 

At this stage, the race seems likely to have a similar pace set up to the races he has won in California and whilst some of his rivals are likely to be better suited by going up in trip in 2027, Hughes has the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.

American History is almost a complete opposite to Hughes. He won the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity over this course and distance in Keeneland, the same race won by Ted Noffey in 2025 before he went on to win at the Breeders’ Cup. However, American History was flat out all the way as he chased the two pacemakers. His furlong splits slowed on a furlong-to-furlong basis for each of the 9 splits and he had the lowest peak stride frequency average of the six-runner field (2.33 per second). 

American History is a long striding son of Constitution, who reached a peak average stride length of 26.62 ft, but the run here in October did not answer any questions about his speed. We can be sure that he will stay well, but the second and third-placed horses in the Futurity recorded finishing speeds below 90% and American History stayed on past them, rather than being able to quicken to run them down. 

If Coach Pope were to run on Friday, then he may well give a better showing if he isn’t involved in such a fast-paced early battle for the lead, though he would still have quite a bit to find with Hughes from the evidence we have so far.

The unknown quantity in the race is also trained by Bob Baffert, Salahudin. He recorded some exceptionally long stride length figures when winning the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs and yet still managed to beat a decent field of promising two-year-olds. I suspect that much like American History, he may be found wanting for a turn-of-foot (his top speed figure of 41.7 mph ranked only third in the Iroquois Stakes), but I think he will finish strongly and if the leaders do go too hard, he may outstay them. 

At this stage, I would prefer to be with Hughes and I suspect that he will improve again at this level, but in a 12 months’ time, the likes of Salahudin and American History may achieve more than he does as three-year-olds.

21:35 - Race 10 - Brown Advisory Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

The European horses have a very strong hand once again and you must go back to 2020 to find the last US-trained winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Aidan O’Brien has won the last four renewals of the race and GREAT BARRIER REEF does at least set the standard. He won the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in June where, despite drifting across towards the stands side, he recorded the fastest final furlong (12.31s) and run-out speed (34.34 mph) in the field. 

He hasn’t won since, but his third-placed finish in the Dewhurst Stakes behind Darkness Falls is the strongest piece of form on offer. Having raced away from the rail, he was the last of the five runners to be played and was short of room as the two Godolphin runners closed in front of him. Despite that, the 10.90s he recorded for the penultimate furlong was the fastest split in the entire race and if he repeats that level of form, he will set the standard that the others need to reach, even with his wide draw. 

I would certainly rate that run above Folsom Blues's second-placed finish in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere. He had been a 6-length winner of the National Stakes at the Curragh and is a proven Group 1 performer, but Amusingly was faster than he was in each of the last 5-furlong splits in Paris and the emphasis on speed may just catch him out. I prefer Haffner as Ireland’s best chance. 

He has improved with racing this season and reached a top speed above 40 mph when winning the Royal Lodge at Newmarket in September. He dominated that race and recorded the fastest split for each of the last 3 furlongs once hitting the front. On each of his last two starts, he has recorded one of the shorter peak stride lengths in the field, but his top speed figures have been getting quicker, and this should suit, although he is yet to win around a bend. He has work to do to overturn the form with Folsom Blues from the National Stakes, but he has continued to improve.

There are obvious risks attached to tipping an American-trained horse in the turf races, but I have been really impressed with the way that How's Al Today has been finishing his races at Kentucky Downs and I think that Riley Mott’s charge is a touch of value. 

He clocked a top speed above 43 mph when winning his maiden at Churchill Downs earlier in the season and has already won over the mile when he landed the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile in September. That form has already been boosted when the third-placed Agate won a Grade 2 at Keeneland at the start of October. 

Once asked to go and win his race in September, How’s Al Today powered away to win by over 4 lengths. He was beaten on his only previous try in graded company, but that came on the dirt at Saratoga in August and he seemed to struggle to lengthen his stride when the pace lifted around the turn. He has been breezing on the dirt over 5-furlongs in preparation for this race and shapes like a horse who will enjoy the strong pace set by the European runners. 

We can never really be sure how the American form will translate and that’s especially true with the unique nature of the track at Kentucky Downs, but he is fresher than most of his rivals and his early speed should at least be enough to keep him in contention around the bend.

SATURDAY 31 OCTOBER

18:26 - Race 6 - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

The build up to this race has revolved around Knightsbridge. Bill Mott’s charge has been superb over this distance and only Nysos has managed to beat him over the mile in the last 12 months. However, the decision to send him to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he looks to have a decent each-way chance, has made the Dirt Mile and much more open contest. 

Forged Steel comes into this race following Grade 1 success in the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita, but I wasn’t overly impressed by a victory that was probably workmanlike rather than classy. Perhaps that’s a little harsh given he had the best late speed figures in the field, but a finishing speed of 96.5% would point to a steadily run race by dirt race standards and his stamina had been exposed over 10 furlongs earlier in the year. He looks better suited to the mile, but I don’t think he sets an unbeatable standard.

I’m going to take a “horses for courses” approach with this race. FURTHER ADO has struggled in Grade 1 company this year and has been beaten twice by The Puma, most recently in the Pennsylvania Derby in Philadelphia in September. He ended his two-year-old campaign with victory in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and was sent off as the 7-2 favourite in the international markets for the Kentucky Derby back in May.

An endeavour which didn’t work out, but the exception with this horse has been Keeneland. He won his maiden here last October by over 3s and came back to the same track to deliver his best performance of 2026 when winning the Blue Grass Stakes in April, his only Grade 1 success to date. On that occasion, he powered away in the home straight to win by 11 lengths with closing splits that were more than a second faster than any of his rivals over the final 3 furlongs. 

That gave him the second fastest winning time over the course and distance this season and it’s easy to see why he went to the Kentucky Derby as one of the main contenders on the back of that effort. At Keeneland, Further Ado comes alive and his peak average stride frequency figures have been higher at this track than anywhere else. This should suit as a result, and he has shown more than enough speed to think he can drop back to the mile with relative ease. Taking the view that he is a better horse at Keeneland than he has been able to show elsewhere, he rates a very good each-way chance in an open race.

19:42 - Race 8 - Cygames Breeders' Cup Sprint

This is a match race on all but name. I don’t mind that because it meant that I could dig down into the data for the leading pair. 

The obvious favourite for the race is Englishman. He has won four of his five starts to date and is unbeaten over distances of 7-furlongs or less. The winner of the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial at Saratoga at the end of August in good style from the front and had most of his rivals off the bridle at halfway as he eventually kept on beating Deep Flame by nearly 4 lengths. 

A winning time of 1:20.71 was the second fastest time in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial this century and he was within 0.2s of Runhappy’s (2015) race record time. That time also meant that Englishman had recorded the two fastest times of the season over the 7-furlong trip at Saratoga, with his victory in the Woody Stephens Stakes coming out best of all at 1:20.04 which tied the track record - this colt is rapid. 

He covered the first 3-furlongs in August in under 34s and had reached an average stride frequency figure of 2.50 strides per second by the end of the opening furlong. That early speed was too much for most of his rivals and consecutive sub-11s furlongs down the back straight are always likely to prove too fast for all but the very best dirt horses. 

He is highly likely to lead the field in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and I don’t think there are too many horses in the line-up who will be able to stay close enough to the pace to make a sustained challenge, but at what is likely to be a very short price, I think there is at least a small case to oppose him.

T O ELVIS, trained in Japan by Daisuke Takayanagi also has some eye-catching data on his side. His victory in the Churchill Downs Stakes at the Kentucky Derby Meeting was the fastest time that we have recorded over the 7-furlong trip at that track in 2026 and he recorded the best Top Speed (42.68 mph) and Late Speed (38.27 mph) of any winner over that course and distance in the process. 

We only have one run in the US to base this opinion from, but his data from Churchill Downs would suggest that he may be able to keep tabs on Englishman as they head into the turn. He recorded a longer stride than Englishman did at Saratoga, as well as a higher average speed figure (39.14 mph). All of this came despite being posted four wide around the turn and he powered away in the home straight to win by over half a second. 

There have been some subsequent winners to come out of that race, although we haven’t seen the runner-up (Disruptor) since. Whilst Englishman is the most likely winner, the Japanese challenger shouldn’t be underestimated and his data from Churchill Downs would suggest that he is at least capable of remaining in contention into the closing stages. Given the way that he finished the race in May, in the same form he may be capable of causing an upset.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.