Total Performance Data tips

Published 10.09 - all selections online

My first bet on Thursday comes at Chepstow in the EBF / UB40 ft. Ali Campbell 24th July Restricted Novice Stakes (3.15). Norham did cost €65,000 at Goffs last year so any market support for Adam Kirby’s newcomer should be noted, but the form standard set by some of those with experience is a good one and she will need to be relatively smart to match it. 

We haven’t seen AMBER OCEAN since she made her debut at Wolverhampton in April, but that form has worked out extremely well in the interim period. The winner, Lover Girl, would go on to finish third in the Marygate at York, whilst the third, fourth and seventh have all won races since to boost the form. Amber Ocean made the running that day and she took just 5.4s to reach 30 mph when the stalls opened, which made her the fastest starting two-year-old to have run at the track so far this season. 

That early speed could be the key from stall 7 and if she bounces out to lead once again, then getting her across to the stands side rail could leave her ideally placed. She contested the lead with Minnie Bear at Wolverhampton who would go on to finish last of the eight runners, so the fact that Amber Ocean was able to hold on for second place despite some quick early fractions can only be seen as a positive. 

Although Lover Girl did ultimately come past her in the final furlong, her stride frequency had dropped by just 0.02 strides per second in the final furlong of her debut and given that the winner now has a rating of 85, that wasn’t a bad effort under the circumstances. The absence is a slight concern, but the yard has a reasonable return when booking Rossa Ryan to ride (18.75%, +£41.64 to a £1 stake at SP) and his record at the track speaks for itself. 

Assuming the selection can repeat the Wolverhampton effort, I think it is highly likely that she will be in front with the stands rail to help and that may well be enough to see her break her maiden tag.

My second selection on Thursday, rather unusually, comes over at Saratoga in Race 2, a Maiden Special Weight (6.48). Term Premium ran the fastest final furlong when second at Aqueduct over a mile last time and clearly sets the standard. However, that was the only time in the race at which he ran the fastest furlong in the field and he seemed to be very one paced in the straight, even starting out at that distance on the dirt. 

I think that Irish Goodbye is highly likely to improve past him for the step up to a mile and he had the best run-out speed in the field when second over an extended 6 furlongs at Aqueduct. His stride frequency increased above its race average figure inside the final furlong and that would suggest that he had plenty left in the tank when crossing the line. 

I’d certainly have the Brad Cox runner as the favourite, but I want to take a chance on BUBSTER at the prices. He made his debut on turf, but he was supported into second favouritism and bumped into a very fast horse from Wesley Ward’s yard. Despite running 10.33s for the second furlong, Bubster couldn’t get himself on terms and he tired in the home straight. However, his average stride length peaked at over 26 ft and he simply found the tight turns of the inner turf track too tight. 

Both his Sire and DamSire were dirt winners and I think the switch to this surface for his second start should really suit. He ran on turf, so it’s hard to compare his speed metrics to those with experience on the dirt, but his long stride should help him on the dirt over a mile here and I thought there was a solid case to be made that he was better than a fifth-placed finish on debut might suggest.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.