Total Performance Data tips

Published 9.25 17/03

We are back into calmer waters this week after the excitement of Cheltenham, but the flat season is just around the corner and there is some decent racing at Wolverhampton on Tuesday evening, live on Sky Sports Racing, most notably in the novice races at the start of the card.

I like CABALLO GRANDE (5:00 Wolverhampton) in the second race. He is the only colt in the lineup and comes here with winning experience on the all-weather after an all-the-way success at Southwell on his last start.

He took just 5.6s to reach 30mph that day and dominated the race from that point, coming away to win by 4 lengths with a run-out speed of 32.9mph. Michael Bell has a 28% strike rate with his runners at Wolverhampton in the last 12 months and although his son of Ardad has a penalty to carry and weight to concede to the four fillies, he recorded a peak average stride length of 25.01ft at Southwell and looks more than big enough to carry that weight.

There are some dangers in the field. Florizelle is a half-sister to War Chant who won at this track for Rae Guest and her yard has a record of three wins and four places from 15 runners at Wolverhampton, so if she was well supported on her debut then she could play a hand, though she is probably a longer-term prospect.

I liked the way that Leonie finished here a fortnight ago as she ran on from the rear with a finishing speed of 112%. However, that was a steadily run race and the winner, Pints in Peace, was having her 10th start and had an official rating of just 73, so it’s hard to be overly enthusiastic about that form.

Lahan Kingman is the much more interesting filly. She finished 3rd in a Newbury maiden last summer that was won by the now 96-rated Touleen. She had to be ridden at halfway and the 2 horses ahead of her were the only two in the field to exceed 40mph, but she kept on under a hands ride to finish a clear 3rd. The winner, 2nd, 6th and 9th have all won races since and the form is at least as strong as the race Caballo Grande won.

She is the danger and the yard has a 30% strike rate in the last 14 days at the time of writing. She has an absence of over 200 days to overcome and that was enough to put me off, but I do see her as the main danger, especially in receipt of 12lb and if the market vibes were strong, she could be the one to challenge my selection.

This is the feature race on the night (7:30 Wolverhampton) and the pace would look to be drawn in stalls 3, 4 and 5. I can see the angle with Fortification with both the blinkers added for the first time and James Doyle coming into ride. He finished 2nd in a restricted riders race last time, but despite taking just 5.6s to reach 30mph when the stalls opened, he had to be driven along early and was eventually squeezed out to be last at halfway.

He did run on when getting clear room, but this is a bigger field and he was beaten 5 lengths last time out. The blinkers will need to make him significantly sharper in this race.

Alasrae has won his last two starts and is clearly in peak form, but he drops back to 5 furlongs having needed every yard of the 6 furlongs to win at Kempton last time, where he recorded a winning margin of just 0.01s when diving in the final strides.

I much prefer an each-way approach with HENRYTHENATE. He has won three of his last six starts, including a course and distance win back in September and although he was 9th on his latest start, that did come in the Class 2 All Weather Championships Trial at Lingfield and this looks to be an easier assignment.

He was dropped in last time and had to make his challenge along the far side rail at Lingfield, which is always a difficult task. He kept on and was only beaten 4 lengths so I am happy to put a line through that run. Being drawn in stall 8, wide of the early pace, should help and given that he recorded the fastest run-out speed in the field when winning a pair of races at Lingfield earlier in the year, he should get a nice setup to run at the leaders in the straight.

He hasn’t won above Class 5 yet, but he has looked highly progressive since switching to the Stuart Williams yard and he looks more than capable of at least running into the frame with this setup.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.