Finished 1 of 14 @ 15/8
Tim Carroll
Tim scored with his NAP at Happy Valley midweek and now has expert analysis and best bets for Sunday's Sha Tin Vase card - live on Sky Sports Racing from 5.45am.
This Sunday sees an exciting 11-race card from Sha Tin getting underway at 5.45am - live on Sky Sports Racing. The two features of the meeting are both Group 3 contests in race 7, The Lion Rock Trophy over 1m, and race 9, the Sha Tin Vase over 6f, with both offering prize-money of more than £400,000.
Now onto this week’s selections...
Race 1: Hong Kong Wu Hua General Association Cup Plate (5.45am) (6f)
1 SPICE BAG defied market expectations when making a winning debut down the straight course over the 5f earlier this month with seven of these in behind. Given the yard, it’s slightly puzzling that he went around at 49.00 that day, and he does carry a 7lb penalty.
However, he looked professional on his introduction, coming from well off the pace, running through the line with plenty of purpose to win drawing away, suggesting the step up to 6f would be ideal.
Dangers:
12 Rising World is a debutant with plenty of speed in the pedigree that has looked sharp in his last couple of trials, and the booking of Purton suggests connections expect a forward showing.
6 Sharp Planet was runner-up as favourite behind the selection last time, and he meets that rival on 7lb better terms, but the selection won with a bit more in hand than the margin would suggest.
9 Ever Wealth was third in behind the selection on debut and although he was up on the pace and couldn’t go with the winner, who he meets on 7lb better terms, he did stick on and is well drawn.
Race 2: Class 4 Hong Kong Mei Zhou Association Cup (Handicap) (6.15am) (5f)
5 GRAND NOVA doesn’t win often but he’s a consistent type on a workable mark that arrives having run his best race of the current campaign when beaten in a photo as runner-up to an odds-on favourite at Happy Valley last time.
The selections last win came over course and trip in December 2024 and he’s only 3lb lower in the handicap, which is testament to his consistency, but the debutants aside, there isn’t a lot of form in the contest, and he does have a favourable high draw.
Dangers:
3 Oneshot showed nothing his first two starts but took a big step forward in winning over course and trip last time when unwanted in the market on yielding going, which can produce some odd results and he does go up 6lb, but he’s the only runner in the line up with a local win this season.
9 King’s Arrow is a debutant that has had just the two trials, but he’s placed in both, he’s from a yard that have landed a few touches this season and any market support should be noted.
8 Ka Ying Lightning is a debutant that has moved nicely in a couple of his trials, although he has been tardy out of the gates his last two and won’t want to repeat that here, but a market watch is advised.
Race 3: Class 4 Federation of Associations Of Native Hing Ning Residents In Hong Kong Cup (Handicap) (6.45am) (6f)
1 PAPAYA BROSE made a winning debut over course and trip in February and has run better than the bare result in two subsequent spins when a beaten favourite twice after a couple of tardy starts and tight for room in the straight on both occasions.
He does go from the top of the handicap, but he looks destined for higher grades and although he’s unlikely to be with the leaders, connections would be hopeful of a better start this time.
Dangers:
4 Fun N Fun Together has two wins on the dirt, but he has been placed on this track a few times, he’s ideally drawn for a speedball and the 10lb claim sees him effectively running from a mark 9lb below his last placed effort on the turf.
12 Ka Ying Radiance, who despite being unplaced all five starts has been on the sharp end of the betting on each occasion, probably has more ability than his record would suggest but has had a couple of setbacks, and he’ll strip fitter for his recent return when he had a tough trip planted wide.
2 Tin Fook, who won a maiden at his second and final start in Australia, is yet to open his local account in 10 starts, but he has been placed three times, and he’ll find the waters a tad calmer now that he drops down to this level for the first time.
Race 4: Class 4 Hong Kong Federation Of Guangzhou Associations Cup (Handicap) (7.15am) (6f)
7 OLDTOWN arrives having been unplaced his last six starts, but he’s had just the two spins for Mark Newnham running better than the bare result on both occasions when given plenty to do before picking up strongly without threatening on both occasions (rider pulled in for a please explain on his latest run).
The selection drops 2lb in the handicap which sees 1lb below his winning mark from the start of the season. It’s unlikely he’ll be with the leaders, but from the draw in 1 he should be able to position closer to the pace, and Purton, who was on top when he won, is back on board.
Dangers:
2 Malpensa had shaped with promise a couple of times before opening his account over course and trip last time and is entitled to improve further, but he does go up 6lb after a narrow margin success and once again has a tricky draw.
1 Speedie Smartie has been a model of consistency since joining the Brett Crawford yard, recording three wins and six placed efforts from 10 starts, but he goes from the top of the handicap and draws high, which won’t be easy.
5 Dancing Blaze was kept safe in the market when fourth over course and trip on debut and although well held by the first three he had a tough run planted wide with no cover on the speed and should come on plenty for the outing.
Race 5: Class 3 Hakka Cup (Handicap) (8.05am) (7f)
5 CIRCUIT CHAMPION, who personifies the saying “every setback is a setup for a greater comeback” never saw a racetrack until his five-year-old season due to many issues, but it’s become obvious as to why connections where so patient as he looks an outstanding prospect, runner-up on debut before winning-back-to-back races.
The selection goes up 8lb having won over 6f last time, but he came from what looked an impossible position after a messy start that day, to win running away. He does have more on his plate and this is a solid Class 3, but he possesses plenty of acceleration and should relish stepping up to 7f.
Dangers:
13 King Dance is a progressive type that has won three of his last four (two from two over this trip) and although he moves up in grade under a 7lb penalty he carries 12lb less at this level, but they do like to ride him cold, so he may need some luck.
8 Aeroinvincible won back-to-back races over course and trip at a level below this before a strong effort in defeat when beaten less than a length last time when upped in grade, and he’s well drawn for a pace runner.
1 Helene Supafeeling, who was a twice winner (when known as Port Light) for Archie Watson goes from the top of the handicap and even with a 2lb claim that will be no easy task here, but he’s a promising type that was runner-up over course and trip last time when carrying slightly more weight.
Race 6: Class 4 Hong Kong Federation Of Huichow Associations Cup (Handicap) (8.35am) (1m 2f)
6 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON showed very little his first five starts but left that form behind when a shock winner (88.00) over 11f at Happy valley two back and proved the performance wasn’t just a one-off when an even better effort in defeat as runner-up here over 9f last time.
It is worth noting that both those runs have come on yielding going (rain forecast for Saturday). However, his last performance on face value deserves a decent mark up as he had an awful trip, planted wide the entire way before being picked off late by Romantic Fantasy, who he meets on 3lb better terms. A repeat effort and some luck would see him go close.
Dangers:
4 Double Win has been placed two of his last three including when behind the selection last time who he meets on 7lb better terms, but there’s very little pace in the race and the selection is likely to get first run on several of these.
12 Romantic Fantasy doesn’t win too often, but he did record his second career success here last time and although he goes up 5lb, he’s a consistent type that stays the trip.
5 Volcanic Spark goes up 5lb having won over 9f last time and although yet to win beyond that trip he does give the impression he’s suited by a bit further these days having closed out strongly last time.
Race 7: Group 3 Lion Rock Trophy (Handicap) (9.05am) (1m)
7 SKY JEWELLERY faces his acid test now that he moves into this company for the first time, but the John Size four-year-old is one of most exciting young horses in Hong Kong and whilst he’s now on a mark of 95 after his most recent success, chances are he’s got room to manoeuvre.
The selection, who has won five of seven starts, was off for a year before recording a resounding win first up prior an even more impressive performance last time over course and trip when he tanked throughout before going on to win comfortably. Whilst he dives into deeper waters, it is a handicap and he gets weight from most of his rivals.
Dangers:
6 Winning Ovation, who was a winner (when known as Nascimento) for Michael Bell, has hit the ground running in Hong Kong winning four of his six starts including last time over 7f, and although he’s been lumped 8lb for that, he looks an outstanding prospect that should be suited by the step up to the mile.
1 Copartner Prance has yet to win this season, but he’s been dinning at the top table his last three, it was only five starts ago he was runner-up to the brilliant My Wish in a Group 2 handicap, and he’ll find the waters a tad calmer here.
4 Beauty Joy isn’t getting any younger and hasn’t won for a while, but he’s another that has kept some good company that continues to drop down the handicap, and he’s on 10lb better terms with Sky Jewellery for a four-length defeat last time.
Race 8: Federation Of Qing Yuan Associations (Hong Kong) Cup (Handicap) (9.40am) (7f)
2 INVICTUS DRAGON goes up 7lb having broken his duck over course and trip last time and although it took him 11 goes to open his account he’d shaped with promise several times prior when attacking the line with plenty of purpose.
The selection was slow to break at his most recent start, and although he is normally ridden cold, he caught the eye with the way he picked up from toward the back to win a shade cosy. He has more on his plate under the penalty, but he should have a solid gallop to aim at and looks to be on an upward curve.
Dangers:
12 Lucky Man hacked up over course and trip two back when having his first start for Jimmy Ting before a luckless effort in defeat when held up for a run in the straight, getting out late for second in behind the selection and although it would be a stretch to say he beats the winner, he is on 6lb better terms.
6 Gallant Design is a five-start maiden that should be wining soon enough having placed his last two and although one spot behind Circuit Ferry last time, he does meet the rival on slightly better terms and should have the gun run from the inside draw.
1 Circuit Fiery, who is likely to shoot from the front, is if nothing but game, having won twice and placed six of his nine starts this season, but he does go up another 2lb having been beaten a lip in second last time.
Race 9: Group 3 Sha Tin Vase (Handicap) (10.10am) (6f)
7 PATCH OF STARS doesn’t know how to run a bad race and arrives having won over course and trip last time with a couple of these in behind. The selection has been handed a 7lb penalty for what was a comfortably win but now that he goes into a Group 3 handicap, this is the least amount of weight he’s carried since successful here last June.
The selection mark does go into the 100s (101) for the first time, but he has drawn the inside, which should see him in behind the leaders with the gun run throughout.
Dangers:
6 Invincible Shield, who had the selection back in third when winning here in January and is on 3lb better terms here and although beaten twice since, he has run with merit in defeat both times.
1 Raging Blizzard is a Group 1 placed sprinter that goes handicapping for the first time since runner-up in the Premier Bowl last October, and he should get a decent gallop to aim at which suits his closing style, but he’s now 7lb higher than when he contested the Premier Bowl and must conceded 6-20lb to his rivals.
8 Crimson Flash, who despite winning back-to-back Class 2s over course and trip was unwanted in the market last time when runner-up to the selection, who he meets on 6lb better terms fo0r a length margin.
Race 10: Class 3 General Association Of Hong Kong Heyuan Societies Cup (Handicap) (10.45am) (1m)
3 ENDUED has a bit more ability than his record of three wins from 22 starts would suggest, but he’s a late closing that needs a decent gallop and a bit of luck, something that has deserted him on a few occasions.
The selection has picked up the bronze over course and trip his last two, slightly tight for room and doing his best work late last time. Although he’s likely to be ridden cold again, he should get a decent gallop to aim at here with and in a wide-open contest, he looks one of the more likely types.
Dangers:
5 Amazing Partners has won three and placed four of his seven starts including when runner-up over course and trip last time but he goes up 2lb having enjoyed the run of the race last time, but he has a tricky draw here.
4 Lucky Sam Gor is a four-time winner this season and was thought highly enough to contest the first two legs of the four-year-old Classic Series and should be included despite a slightly underwhelming run last time when a couple of spots behind the selection.
12 Complete Unknown, who won a maiden at his second and final outing in Australia, has been unplaced all three Hong Kong starts but he ran better than the bare result in fifth last time when caught wide and he’s entitled to improve further.
Race 11: Class 3 Hong Kong Ka Ying (Meizhou) General Chamber Of Commerce Cup (Handicap) (11.20am) (6f)
3 GOLD PATCH won three of his first four starts before finishing third over course and trip last time from his current mark, and you could argue the handicapper has him in his grips for now.
However, the Francis Lui three-year-old is a pacey type that had drawn double figure stalls in four of his five starts, the exception being when coasting to victory here two back. He had to burn early last time and never managed to get to the rail, cutting the breeze outside the leader all the way but scrapped hard, nonetheless. He finally has a decent draw and his main pace rival (Smart Golf) is drawn to his outside.
Dangers:
1 Crossborderpegasus is a low-mileage four-year-old that has won three of eight starts and no doubt possesses plenty of ability, however, he does have a bad habit of laying in under pressure but if they can sort out the kinks, he’s a very good horse in the making.
8 Majestic Valour has two wins and two unplaced efforts from four career starts but although not a luckless loser, he had a tough run last time from a high draw and connections add blinkers for the first time.
2 Smart Golf has won three of six which has seen his mark shoot up 24lb since November, but he likes to go from the front and for the fifth time in his last six starts he draws high and there’s pace underneath.
SUNDAY’S PLACEPOT
Sunday’s placepot will be races 6 through to 11. All up we will be playing 108 combinations (3x2x3x1x3x2), which will cost £10.80 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck!
LEG 1 - 4 DOUBLE WIN 6 SUPER GOLDENDRAGON 12 ROMANTIC FANTASY
LEG 2 - 6 WINNING OVATION 7 SKY JEWELLERY
LEG 3 - 2 INVICTUS DRAGON 6 GALLANT DESIGN 12 LUCKY MAN
LEG 4 - 7 PATCH OF STARS
LEG 5 - 3 ENDUED 5 AMAZING PARTNERS
LEG 6 - 1 CROSSBORDER PEGASUS 3 GOLD PATCH
TIM'S BEST BETS (scale 1-5 points)
6.45am SHA TIN
2pts win PAPAYA BROSE
8.05am SHA TIN
3pts win CIRCUIT CHAMPION
10.10am SHA TIN
1pt win PATCH OF STARS