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Tim Carroll

Tim tipped two Wednesday winners and returns with best bets, Placepot picks and analysis of Sha Tin's final fixture of the season on Sunday, live on Sky Sports Racing.

Sunday sees a competitive 11-race card from Sha Tin getting underway at 9.00am, live on Sky Sports Racing

The feature of the meeting is race 8, the Class 1 Hong Kong Racehorse Owners Association Trophy (handicap), over 1 mile, offering prizemoney off more than £400,000.

Race 1: Class 5 Miraculous Handicap (9.00am) (9 furlongs)

11 DRAGON SUNRISE is a long-standing maiden, but he has met with support a couple of times recently and has placed his last two, running better than the bare result when third at Happy Valley last time.

On that occasion he was sitting in behind the leaders, but when a couple of runners made early moves around the outside, the selection was dragged back toward the tail of the field. However, he ran through the line to grab the bronze beaten just over a length and he should give this a shake off his current mark with a similar performance.     

Dangers:

4 Golden Fortune is a 10-start maiden, but he has been runner-up his last two on the dirt and at Happy Valley and could have a bit more improvement to come.

1 Beauty Missile disappointed last time with no obvious excuse, which was his first run since February, but he did win over this trip at Happy Valley three back before running with merit in defeat when placed over course and trip and could bounce back.

5 Ping Hai Comet has been out of sorts this season, but he drops a further 3lb in the handicap having won twice last campaign from up to 10lb higher and this is a moderate contest.   

Race 2: Class 5 Mr Award Handicap (9.30am) (7 furlongs)

7 DOUBLE BINGO has just the one win from 26 starts and he has built a bit of a ‘bridesmaid’ record with six silvers, three of which have come in his last 5-starts including when beaten a lip over course and trip last time.

He was probably a tad unlucky that day as he ran onto heels and over raced and although excuses become a habit with some, he also had no luck the start prior when beaten a narrow margin having been held up in the straight. Purton maintains the faith and from the favourable draw hopefully he has a clear round.   

Dangers:

11 Speedy Trident had been unplaced his first 18 starts in Hong Kong but shaped with some promise two back at 78.00 on the tote before meeting with plenty of support here last time when runner-up over course and trip when tight form room in the straight. 

5 Iron Legion can be a bit in and out but he’s just 2lb above his winning mark from January - he bounced back to form when he went from the front before finishing third over the mile last time and has a low draw.

9 Draco is a long-standing maiden, but he has been placed plenty of times from up to 15lb higher and was only beaten a nose in fourth last time when having his first start for Cody Mo.  

Race 3: Class 4 Pingwu Spark Handicap (10.00am) (7 furlongs)

10 VOYAGE BOSS, who won on debut in May of last year, has gone winless this campaign but he’s performed well enough in defeat several times, running a seasonal best when third over course and trip last time when in behind a rival making it back-to-back wins and an odds-on favourite.

The selection usually sits handy, but they put him right on the pace that day under the 10lb claim of Nichola Yuen, who retains the ride, and from the inside draw, they are likely to employ similar tactics here. 

Dangers:

6 Grand Patch didn’t show much in his first two starts over 6 furlongs but took a decent step forward when stepped up to this trip last time when picking up late to grab the bronze and he’s open to further improvement.

14 Silver Up is a long-standing maiden, but he has shaped with a bit of promise in two starts since joining Brett Crawford, he goes from the foot of the handicap and the stable preferred rider, Karis Teetan, takes over. 

7 Hot Air Ballon ran with some promise his first two starts but was then unplaced last time when having his first start since September last year after a setback, but he was kept safe in the market that day and is entitled to come on a bundle.   

Race 4: Class 4 Medic Kingdom Handicap (10.30am) (7 furlongs)

2 RISING PHOENIX has been unplaced his last six spins but not beaten far in most of them and he now drops into Class 4 company, a grade that he’s very comfortable at.

The David Hall 4yo has a good record at this level this season, winning twice, including when last seen in the grade, which was over course and trip in February. He is currently 2lb higher in the handicap than that last win, but he won by a margin that day and the return to this level should see a return to form.

Dangers:

1 Harold Win goes from the top of the handicap and although they have a decent run to the first bend, the outside draw isn’t helpful, but he has a good record at this level (last 6 starts 2-4-1-2-2), and this is a lessor contest than the one he was runner-up in last time.

5 Lucky Man hacked up over course and trip three back before finishing runner-up at his next start and can probably be forgiven a poor effort last time when he scoped poorly post-race.

8 Happy Promise bombed here last time with no obvious excuse, but he’d shaped with promise his first two and a market watch is advised. 

Race 5: Class 4 Big Profit Handicap (11.00am) (6 furlongs)

3 KA YING RESILIENCE was his own worst enemy earlier on in his career and whilst he may not reach the heights some thought likely at that point of his development, he seems to have turned a corner, opening his account at the end of last season and then last time out when having his first spin since January.    

He does go up 6lb for that, but he entitled to come on for the run, and he does have a similar draw to last time when he had the gun run stalking the leaders.   

Dangers:

2 Hayday bounced back to form when runner-up last time under the same 10lb claimer who rides him here and although he goes up 1lb, he has won from higher in the past and he’s far better drawn than last time when he went from the front.

1 Lunar Dash has failed to build on the promise he showed when winning at this level at the start of the season, but he’s still lightly raced, he’s had some tough draws recently and winning rider, Zac Purton, is reunited.

12 Enjoy Golf hasn’t won at this level for over two years, but he did take out a Class 5 in May, he has run well enough in defeat his last two in the grade, and Britney Wong takes off 7lbs.    

Race 6: Class 4 Victory Marvel Handicap (11.30am) (6 furlongs)

2 PRESTIGE ALWAYS will be a bit of a swing as he did disappoint last time when dropping into this grade for the first time but much of his form prior that in higher grades would be good enough to win this.

The selection, who won off a mark of 69 in September 2024, has placed twice from marks of 67 this season, with all three of those efforts under senior riders, but with 10 claimer, Nichola Yuen booked, he effectively runs from a mark of 46 and although he will need to be taken on trust after his last effort, at the weights he does present a strong case.   

Dangers:

1 Oldtown brings solid form to the contest, winning over course and trip two back before a game effort in defeat when runner-up last time behind an odds-on favourite, but he goes up 1lb and has a tricky draw.

6 Silver Spurs recorded his third win of the season when successful over course and trip last time having made all from the same draw, but he does go up 6lb and with rider change, losses a further 3lb claim.

8 Solid Car is a 16- start maiden (three in Australia), but he has hit the frame several times from marks up to 13lb higher and is worth including in exotic type bets.

Race 7: Class 4 Solar Hei Hei Handicap (12.00pm) (1 mile)

10 SMART FAT CAT is yet to open his account in 13 starts but he does look a winner in waiting having shown improvement recently with two silvers before a decent effort in fourth last time from the outside draw when given a more aggressive ride than we’d seen in the past.

He draws down in 4 this time and whilst it difficult to know exactly what they will do here, he had been held up in mid division his previous two including when only beaten a lip here two back when clear of the others.

Dangers:

3 Packing Fighter, who won (known as Maestro Mark) a Gowran Park maiden at his only start for Joseph Murphy, is yet to break his local duck in 9-starts but arrives having been beaten a lip in second as an odds-on favourite last time, but he goes up 2lb and has a high draw. 

9 Polar Patch is a low mileage maiden that has shaped with some promise his last three, his last two from high draws, he’s better drawn here, a 7lb claimer takes over, and he drops 2lb in the handicap.

1 Mighty Steed goes from the top of the handicap, but he has been runner-up three of his last four carrying similar weights and this is the best draw he’s had for a while.

Race 8: Class 1 Hong Kong Racehorse Owners Association Trophy (Handicap) (12.35pm) (1 mile)

8 PACKING ANGEL, who was beaten a nose third in last year’s Derby, was off for nine-months after that having suffered a knee injury, making a belated return in January. Understandably it took the selection a few starts to gain match fitness, but he returned to winning ways at Happy Valley in May.

He then was fourth here two back behind Silvery Breeze, who he meets on 6lbs better terms, having been given enough to do. He was unplaced in behind Soliel Fighter last time, but that race was run below standard time and nothing from the back had a chance with the 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the run finishing in that order. He goes from toward the foot of the handicap at this level and he should get a stronger gallop to aim at than last time. 

Dangers:

9 Silvery Breeze won a 9-furlong contest at Happy Valley two back before rattling late when fourth in a Group 3 handicap over the same trip here last time when carrying no weight, and he once again lurks from the foot of the handicap.

4 Soleil Fighteris a consistent type that arrives under an 8lb penalty having won a Class 2 over course and trip last time with a few of these in behind, but he has more on his plate from a career high mark.

12 Max Que runs from 6lb out of the handicap but he’s in shrewd hands having won from out of the handicap in the past and although fourth behind Soleil Fighter last time, who he meets on the same terms, he should get a stronger gallop to aim at here. 

Race 9: Class 3 Joy and Fun Handicap (1.10pm) (6 furlongs)

8 PAPAYA BROSE is a low mileage promising type that has won two of his 4 starts including over course and trip last time when taking out a Class 4 contest by a narrow margin for which he goes up 6lb.

The penalty sees the selection moving up in grade and diving into deeper waters. However, he should have won by further last time when held up in the straight. He carries 14lb less at this level, he has plenty of upside and Moreira and Fownes have been in great form, combining for three winners at the midweek Happy Valley meeting.

Dangers:

4 Gold Patch has won three of five and place the other two and although turned over last time, he did plenty of work to get across from a high draw that day, but he once again draws high and may be forced to sit outside the likely leader, Lady’s Choice.

1 Crossborderpegasus has more ability than his three wins from 10 starts would suggest, however, he has a bad habit of hanging in when put under pressure, but he’s more than capable of winning races like this if they can sort out the kinks.

3 Lady’s Choice has yet to win this season, but his mark has dropped 19lb since November, he was third here two back, he has a 10lb claimer taking over and is a pace runner drawn the inside.  

Race 10: Class 3 Sight Winner Handicap (1.45pm) (1 mile)

12 BIG RETURN landed a course and trip three-timer two back before finishing runner-up here last time behind Endued, who he meets on 5lb better terms, when having his first spin in the grade this season.

The selection, who won a novice at Kranji in Singapore, has taken a while to find his local feet, but his record over course and trip now reads 1-1-1-2 and although it would be a stretch to say he was unlucky last time, he was briefly held up in the straight whilst the winner got a glorious run up the inside.   

Dangers:

8 Aerovolanic won back-to-back races over course and trip earlier in the season and although it may be the handicapper has a hold of him, he didn’t have a lot of luck last time when beaten less than two-lengths and he’s drawn to have all the favours behind the leaders here.

5 Smart Avenue won over course and trip two back and didn’t enjoy the rub of the green at Happy Valley last time, Purton maintains the faith, but he’ll need some luck as he’s usually ridden cold.  

1 Endued is a highly consistent type that recorded a deserved win over course and trip last time, but he’ll need a career best as he goes from the top of the handicap under a 6lb penalty.

Race 11: Class 3 All You Wish Handicap (2.20pm) (7 furlongs)

6 ALMIGHTY LIGHTNING is a low mileage 3yo that’s won two of five, running a career best when winning over course and trip last time at this level when having his first try over this trip.

The selection goes up 8lb for that, which makes things a tad more challenging, but he drew the outside last time before settling back in the field, with cover but planted wide. However, he tanked throughout and picked up strongly, winning more comfortably than the margin would suggest, and he does have a far better draw this time.

Dangers:

1 Super Express has recorded two wins from 11-starts but has been runner-up on no less than eight occasions - I’m not sure that’s a positive but he’s an honest type drawn well but goes from the head of the handicap.

12 Come Fast Fay Fay will be moving up in grade under an 8lb penalty and he does draw high, but he lands here on a three-timer, he carries 12lb less than last time and is likely to go from the front.

8 Meaningful Dragon has more on his plate now that he moves up in grade under a 6lb penalty, but he’s won his last two having had just 4 starts since November 2024 and the son of Caravaggio may have more to come. 

SUNDAY’S PLACEPOT

The  Placepot will be races 6 through to 11. All up we will be playing 81 combinations (3x3x3x1x3x1), which will cost £8.10 for a 10p stake and so on. Good luck. 

LEG 1 - 1 OLDTOWN 2 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 6 SILVER SPURS 

LEG 2 - 3 PACKING FIGHTER 9 POLAR PATCH 10 SMART FAT CAT  

LEG 3 - 4 SOLIEL FIGHTER 8 PACKING ANGEL 9 SILVERY BREEZE   

LEG 4 - 8 PAPAYA ROSE 

LEG 5 - 5 SMART AVENUE 8 AREOVOLANIC 12 BIG RETRUN 

LEG 6 - 6 ALWAYS LIGHTNING