Declan Rix

Published 9:50 - all selections online

I am not quite ready to give up on the 2026 Flat season just yet, possibly domestically, but not where the 2026 Breeders’ Cup is concerned after a fine evening of racing took place on Friday.

On the turf course, I think we saw just how important good gate speed, early positioning and a relatively-prominent ride can be in getting a fair crack at things. That will be a theme in the below bets - good luck!

In the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (20:20 Keeneland), “local” horse DETERMINISTIC looks to have all the attributes needed to go close under Kendrick Carmouche for young trainer Miguel Clement.

Blessed with good gate speed, early pace and a prominent style of racing, the presence of fellow American horse Cabo Spirit - a predominantly forward-going, front-running sort - will be a big help to his chance over this trip. Having won over further in his career, Deterministic is a galloping sort and a strong stayer over an American mile.

With that in mind, it’s no surprise the classy and pacey Notable Speech comfortably ran him down in what was a tactical Woodbine Mile Stakes 49 days ago, but today’s bigger field could possibly make it harder for Notable Speech to pick his way through, for all he is obviously the horse to beat. Sure, the selection had the complete run of things on the front-end, but he was never going to have the closing pace to fend off today’s favourite.

If his rider can grab a good early position today, sitting just off an even or good gallop set by Cabo Spirit, with Qirat possibly helping them along, the five-year-old won’t be stopping late and will hopefully have built up a big enough lead to fend off the strong European contingent.

Later on the card in the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (21:36), surely brilliant Irish Oaks winner JOHANNA WALSH is overpriced, albeit in a solid-looking renewal in which Arc third Diamond Necklace is the current favourite.

Sure, that fantastic Curragh display from the daughter of Sea The Stars could be argued as an outlier in her young career, but she’s only had one start since, in a strong-looking Yorkshire Oaks where the race didn’t pan out great for her, chasing a strong early pace in ground that was deemed far too soft.

Joseph O’Brien’s inmate will have no ground concerns this evening in a race she might be able to grab a good early position. When on-song, Johanna Walsh is blessed with decent gate speed and quality early pace, so she can hopefully grab the perfect position with American horse Minaret Station on the front-end.

I don’t see masses of pace on here, so the selection really could be in a much better position to strike off the turn from likely-closer Dimond Necklace and the sometimes slowly-away Benvenuto Cellini, who could also find this test sharp enough, while the ground will surely be too quick for the hugely-likable Bay City Roller.

With obvious excuses for her Yorkshire Oaks effort, we can still argue that we don’t know how good Johanna Walsh is. A return to her Irish Oaks demolition win really doesn’t see her with an awful lot to find with the big guns here, so if a long campaign hasn’t taken its toll, she can outrun her odds. On that score, it’s a big positive that all three Joseph O’Brien runners here on Friday also ran well.