Barry Faulkner's US Racing Preview

Two races from Churchill Downs, wrapped around one each from Oaklawn Park and Aqueduct, which is hosting Belmont, make up the action in a Thursday betting window this week.

Hopefully, the analysis below will guide you to some profitable play but, whichever way you make your picks, good luck everyone! 

Belmont at the Big A, Churchill Downs and Oaklawn Park races for Thursday 30th April 2026

Churchill Downs 8 (9.40pm)

Starter Allowance ($50,000) N1X - Fillies and mares 3 year olds and upwards - Seven furlongs - Dirt

ANGEL BELLA (1) made her debut as a three-year-old in early August last year. It came in a $30,000 Maiden Claimer going a mile on turf at Ellis Park and it did not provide much encouragement. Nevertheless, for her next outing six weeks later, she was upped in grade into a Maiden Special Weight over the same trip, but on the main track here. Unsurprisingly, she was easy to back but, overcoming a poor start, she ran on well to take it by 2¼ lengths. 

Just over eight weeks later, she was a tepid favourite in one of these going 110 yards further. After completely missing the kick, she was 15 lengths behind the leader after half a mile, but kept on to finish a closing third, beaten 1½ lengths. Being bred to thrive over further, the cut back in trip here is a bit of a puzzle, although there is little doubt that she should be a class fit here.

Our Shenanigan (2) took seven runs to get her first win which came in the middle of February, over six and a half furlongs at Turfway Park, in a $50,000 Maiden Claimer. She had been off for four months before that 6 length victory and was given close to six weeks to get over it. She was 7-4 favourite to take a nonwinners of two $50,000 Claimer on her next start and duly obliged, winning that by 2¼ lengths. She was claimed out of that race and starts for a new barn here. Although both her wins came on the synthetic strip, she had previously proved that she is equally adept on dirt, and over this course and distance.

Six-year-old Jensco (6) has only raced in California in her nine-race career so far. After a win in a Maiden Special Weight and two places in this sort of grade, in four races during her first season in 2023, she had just one start the following year, finishing 1½ lengths second in another entry level Allowance Optional Claimer at Santa Anita. She was off for 17 months after that, before returning to finish a well-beaten third in the same grade, back at Del Mar in early August, before running a clunker there the following month. 

She came back in early January this year but was unable get involved the same grade. Switching barns after, and her first start since, she won a $50,000 Starter Optional Claimer over this trip at Santa Anita at the beginning of March. Running for sale for the first time there, she soon led and cleared off late to score by 2¼ lengths. She is not in the shop window today and it will be interesting to see how her California form translates to Kentucky.

Although ANGEL BELLA (1) has been off for five months, her trainer is adept at getting his returners to fire straight off the bench and, with more to come after just three runs, she will do for me here. 

Selection: ANGEL BELLA (1)

Belmont at Aqueduct 8 (9.49pm)

Maiden Special Weight - Fillies and mares 3 year olds and upwards - Six furlongs - Outer Turf

Since succeeding his late father, Miguel Clement has batted at around 19% overall but his first time starters have scored at better than 27%, with the turfers in that group winning at a similar rate. His representative here is Emergency Nine (1), a $160,000 son of Violence, out of a mare whose other foal to race is a winner. She has been in regular timed work since the beginning of March and is one to watch.

Garden of Grace (6), the only four-year-old in here, has finished on the board in eight of her nine starts. She ran four times on turf last year, twice over this course and distance in this grade, taking the show dough on each occasion. She has run four times this year, all on the dirt track here, largely showing the same consistent level of form. She is probably capable of winning one of these but has failed to deliver so far, and she is likely to be a short price for those hoping it will be today.

Atira (7) had a rough time at the start on her only outing so far. That came at the end of February over this trip on dirt, when she found herself well back early, before putting in a strong middle move. That took her to just a length back turning in but she faded to finish third, beaten 7 lengths by the comfortable winner. She tries turf for the first time here but there is pedigree encouragement to support the surface switch.

However, NO NEED TO PANIC (8) interests me here. She was much the slowest away on debut, over this trip on dirt at the end of September, before improving to finish in mid division. Just over five weeks later, over this trip and strip, she got a bump at the break but ran on well to finish a closing fourth, beaten 2¾ lengths. 

The filly would have to find very little improvement on that run to make her competitive here and, with another six months maturity on her side here, could play a major part. Her 8-1 Morning Line price is looking tempting to me.

Selection: NO NEED TO PANIC (8)

Oaklawn Park 7 (9.58pm)

Allowance Optional Claimer N1X or N2L ($30,000) - Fillies and mares 3 year olds and upwards - Six furlongs - Dirt

Dominant Diva (1) tries to get another entry level Allowance Optional Claimer victory on the last day of the month, to accompany the one she got on the first at Tampa Bay Downs. Although not for sale here, she can try for that double due to the fact that the winner's share of the purse for her Florida score was only $19,500, $4,500 short of the amount to count as a ‘win’ in the conditions of contest. She drew off late to win that by 4¾ lengths and, although the competition here is usually stronger than at the Florida track, she cannot be counted out in this group.

TIZNTSHELOVELY (6) has been in good form in three starts over course and distance this year. In the middle of February, she led all the way to win a nonwinners of three, $40,000 Claimer by ½ a length. The following month she finished 5½ lengths second in a $50,000 Starter Allowance, before winning one with a $30,000 threshold eighteen days ago. She was 4-5 to take that and led all the way for a comfortable 2 ¼ lengths score. This does not look the strongest entry level Allowance ever run here, and I think she can take the step up in her stride.   

Regular front ender, Beautiful Twice (7) has also run three times here this year. At the end of February, she won an entry level Allowance by 3½ lengths from Coaster (9), favourite there but absent since. Thirteen days after that, she flattened out in the final furlong to finish 1¾ lengths fourth in a second level contest. She had another go in that grade two weeks later, when her fade was much more marked, as she finished at the back of the six-runner field, beaten 13¾ lengths. She was the outsider of the group there at 12-1 and, even allowing for her running back in a grade in which she has already won here, her poor effort last time, presaged by a lack of support in the betting, is enough to put me off. 

Selection: TIZNTSHELOVELY (6)

Churchill Downs 9 (10.14pm)

Opening Verse Stake (Listed) - 4 year olds and upwards - One mile - Turf

LAGYNOS (8) took a slight lead late in the 2025 running of this race, before finishing second, beaten ½ a length. That was one of seven frame finishes in eight starts last year for this lad. Indeed, the only time he did not make the first three was in the Fourstardave G1 at Saratoga at the beginning of August. Before the end of that month, he had pocketed a tidy $295,700 for winning a Listed Stake at Kentucky Downs, his sole score in 2025. He hasn’t exactly done his bank balance any harm in his three starts at Fair Grounds this year. He finished 1¼ lengths second in a Listed event in the middle of January, then won a G3 four week later. 

Five weeks after that, he took the Muniz Memorial Classic G2, taking his lifetime earning past $2million. Chasing the Crown (5) flattened out to finish 3¾ lengths fourth in that race and could be a live longshot here, if his 15-1 Morning Line price becomes a reality.

As if often the case, Quatrocento (4) looks like being the one with the target on his back here. However, that has not been detrimental in his two starts so far this year. At the end of January, he broke well in a G3 at Tampa Bay Downs, before clearing away in the stretch run to win at 7-10 locally. With just one tap on the tail required, he came home 3¾ lengths clear of his nearest rival. On his next start, about eight weeks later, even money was his price at the off but the outcome, in that Listed contest at Gulfstream Park, was the same. Although, the margin of victory was only three parts of a length. 

This looks a stronger race than either of those and the presence of another front ender, Mi Bago (7) in the line up, does not look particularly helpful for him.

Layabout (1) has raced over a mile and half, then eleven furlongs on his last two starts, both at Gulfstream Park. He won the first, a G3, with Balnikhov (3) 1½ lengths back in third, before fading late to finish 1¼ lengths fourth in the G2 MacDiarmida at the end of February. However, do not let those stretch outs deter you from considering this lad over this shorter trip. All four of his victories last year came between a mile, and eight and a half furlongs, and he ran a belter when fourth in a $2million Listed race over the shorter trip at Kentucky Downs in September.

Layabout (1) and LAGYNOS (8) ran over a mile in separate races on the same day at Kentucky Downs in September. The latter completed the trip in his race a second faster than the other lad, despite arriving from a potentially wearying effort just nine days previously. He has progressed impressively since then and looks a worthy favourite for this.

Selection: LAGYNOS (8)