Expert Analysis

A fascinating renewal to consider and a super looking performance from the very easy winner. When any horse wins in this sort of style he or she will inevitably receive plenty of plaudits and understandably so. In situations like this it is important to put some context into the performance. In this example, I strongly suspect that the winner will have been a lot fitter than the favourite – I imagine most will agree. On ground as soft as this any differences in fitness levels can seriously exaggerate winning and losing margins. The safest option here is to use the proximity of Matata as our guide when assessing the quality of this grade two chase form.

L’EAU DU SUD The fact that Matata would have comfortably finished in front of Jonbon but for his serious error at the final fence adds plenty of substance to the notion that Jonbon ran well below form. After all, Matata was beaten by a similarly wide margin in the 2024 Arkle when the winner that day, Gaelic Warrior, posted a very similar time compared with L’Eau Du Sud here. Extreme conditions like this can often result in extreme outcomes and this in itself is enough to avoid getting too carried away despite the impressive looking nature of this success. Dan Skelton stated post-race that it will be the Tingle Creek next for this winner. It will be interesting to see if this ‘best when fresh’ horse can reproduce the quality of this performance in just three weeks’ time.

JONBON I don’t think it requires too much creative thinking to suggest that the Nicky Henderson horses are some way behind the Dan Skelton team at this point in time. The testing ground will then inevitably exaggerate any differences in those fitness levels. We have plenty of evidence at our disposal to suggest that Jonbon is likely to perform better at Sandown in three weeks’ time.

MATATA He is the most reliable marker for the form as he came into this grade two contest race fit from a previous run. In addition, he enjoyed a relatively easy time of things out in front compared with how he fared after being taken on by Calico over this course and distance last time out.

EDWARDSTONE Although he may not be good enough to win a Tingle Creek as an 11-year-old, at the same time, his best form has all been earned at Sandown. Along with Jonbon, therefore, we are likely to see more from him in three weeks’ time.

HADDEX DES OBEAUX This usual pace setter was held up out the back on this first start in a very long time. Hopefully we will see more from him on another day with this experience behind him.

LIBBERTY HUNTER He managed to unseat Harry Cobden after a mistake at the sixth fence. His error came far too early to be making any predictions regarding where he may have finished.