Expert Analysis

Even when he is tucked up in his box halfway across the world having a mid-year break, it is impossible to get away from Ka Ying Rising, the freakishly good Hong Kong sprinter.

The start of last week’s Newmarket July Meeting coincided with an announcement that the gelding had been elevated to officially joint-best racehorse in the world on a figure of 131.

This was due to collateral form lines, including COMANCHE BRAVE, who Ka Ying Rising had thrashed at Sha Tin in April. The meeting ended with Comanche Brave having won one of Europe’s premier sprints, the July Cup.  

Can we expect a further Ka Ying “rising”, perhaps to the 134 or 135 rating that many of us believe he has long deserved?     

Maybe not. A close third behind Comanche Brave at Newmarket was Satono Reve, who had finished a remote second to Ka Ying Rising in that Hong Kong race before being beaten a whisker by Almeraq in the QEII Stakes at Royal Ascot. 

Satono Reve is about a 116-rated horse on his European form, and likely a couple of pounds below that on this occasion. Still, the July Cup served to illustrate the gulf in ability between Hong Kong’s finest and the best that is on offer over here.

It was an average at best July Cup, judged by the margins between the principals, their former achievements, the times they recorded, and so on. Anyone taking a more optimistic view than that needs to explain the proximity in sixth of the handicapper Prince of India, plus a few other things.

Nonetheless, Comanche Brave’s win was one of the best three at the meeting on my ratings, 1 lb behind BLUE BOLT’s 120-rated Falmouth success on Friday and 3 lb ahead of the admirable REBEL'S ROMANCE’s 116-rated victory in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes on Thursday.

Blue Bolt’s race was the only well-run contest on Friday judged on finishing speeds (hers was 99.2%), and her overall time of 97.38s was the tenth-fastest in this event this century. 

Along with Comanche Brave’s 69.99s on Saturday (eleventh-fastest this century, 99.8% finishing speed), it helps to illustrate that Newmarket’s Clerk of The Course Andrew Morris magicked up fairly quick, but not very quick, conditions in the middle of a heatwave.

Conditions were fastest on the opening day, Thursday, when INNER CITY BLUES quickened in fine style to win a steadily-run July Stakes, running to a figure of 109 with me, but with an additional 4 lb sectional upgrade on top of that.

The one-two in Saturday’s Superlative Stakes, AL HUDAIBA and Abraham Lincoln, also ran to 109, but with minimal upgrading. The latter, in particular, looks destined for even better things, appearing to have the race won when getting to the front with 1f to go (went as short as 20/1 on in running) but then wandering on what was just his second start and being pipped by the similarly wayward but more experienced winner. 

Of note is that the winning time of the Superlative was the closest it has been to that of the older-horse Bunbury Cup on the same card since the former race was upped to Group 2 status over 20 years ago. I think this will prove to be quite a good renewal.

But arguably the most interesting juvenile race of the week was Friday's Duchess of Cambridge won by SENORITA BONITA, who had the distinction of finishing faster than any other winner over the three days, whatever age or distance. 

She posted 22.35s (107.1% finishing speed) for the final 2f but, remarkably, was still not as fast as the two fillies immediately behind her.

Libertango recorded 22.29s (107.5% FS), though she did lose some ground on the other two near the finish, while third-placed Alwaysanangel managed 22.11s (108.4% FS) and was strongest of all late on.

Sectional upgrading makes Alwaysanangel (rated 103+7) the best of the trio were they to meet again, if behind Victorious (115), who had beaten Senorita Bonita (106) readily at Royal Ascot. Libertango (103+2 here) had been more convincing in a stronger-run race at the same venue herself.  

What would backers of More Thunder have given for a strongly-run Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday?

The even-money favourite was plumb last turning in, in a race that had been run at a slow pace, and did extraordinarily well to finish fourth, beaten just over a length by ZEUS OLYMPIOS. 

It had nothing whatsoever to do with More Thunder’s being “slow” as suggested in one quarter. His final 2f here of 22.08s is the fastest at the course 2019 to present, with the “record” previously being held by Blue Point (22.84s) and more recently by Dance A Jig (22.38s), both at the minimum trip. That is some show of speed.

The whole story of Saturday’s defeat is told in various hues in the colour-coded sectionals on this site. More Thunder should have won by at least two lengths according to sectional upgrading and can come good before long - keep the faith.   

Falsely-run races seem to have been something of a theme this week, and there should be no surprise that France – where they are ten-a-penny – got in on the action.

Sunday’s Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Deauville saw a masterclass from the front from Christophe Soumillon on THESECRETADVERSARY, who rattled home in 22.09s for the final 400m (106.9% FS).

Closer inspection of the sectionals, which are available on France-Galop, show that most of his rivals recorded similar finishing speed percentages, but all started from further back. 

The notable exception was runner-up True Love, who ran 21.95s (107.7% FS) and was still gaining at the end. Sectional upgrading has her a length better than this, so the winner by the same half-length margin by which she was in fact beaten.

This was not just a fine riding performance on the winner but a fine training one by “Fozzy” Stack, too. Thesecretadversary seems to have run to much the same rating – 117 – in winning this as he had when landing the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot by wider margins the time before.  

There is an excellent evening action at ParisLongchamp on Tuesday, which is Bastille Day. The Group 1 highlight of the Cygames Grand Prix de Paris (due off at 19:15 BST) brings together several strands of form, including from The Derby at Epsom (111-rated runner-up Maltese Cross), the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot (111-rated Causeway and 110-rated Ancient Egypt cross swords again) and the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly.

That last-named race, won by Constitution River, is working out well and never-nearer fifth ALAM (112 rating) has as good a chance as any in my book. His sire was a miler, but his listed-winning dam needed every yard of 12f and he promises to follow suit.

I would also have PINK PANTHERA in the Prix de Malleret at 18:37 BST and SONS AND LOVERS in the Prix Maurice de Nieuil at 19:50 BST just about favourites for their races, the latter contest timed to be out of the way just as the national anthems start for France vs Spain in the football. A big day in French sport and society it most certainly is!