Expert Analysis

Cheltenham Festival 2026 New Course Review

The whistle was blown for half-time on Wednesday evening at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. Bookmakers and punters alike had time to sit down and reflect before going again on Thursday. Another dry afternoon was expected, fields remained largely competitive, and there were three Grade 1s on offer. The only difference was that we switched from the Old Course to the New Course.

Considered a fairer track due to its more galloping nature and sweeping turns, the New Course generally creates evenly run races that enables closers to get involved. That is the theory, anyway, but Thursday kicked off with yet another prominent racer taking the spoils as White Noise belied 40/1 quotes by fending off her foes in the Mares’ Novice Hurdle for trainers Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls. 

Perhaps she is worth marking up for that effort given the race was run at a fast early gallop and finished with rather slow closing sectionals, a synopsis that would usually favour those who came from off the pace. The horses who filled the positions from second to sixth all raced in midfield in the early stages, while White Noise’s early compatriots weakened back through the pack, thus suggesting she outperformed expectation. Her double-figure price made it seem like it could have been a fluke, but the data proves that she almost certainly was the best horse on the day.

The next three hurdle races on Thursday’s card all held Grade 1 status, albeit the first of them (Mares’ Hurdle) lacked the equine power to really deserve it. Wodhooh ended up taking the prize after sitting a perfect trip throughout - a tonic for punters who couldn’t have White Noise on their shortlist. 

In an evenly run contest that produced a 105.85% finishing speed percentage (FSP), Wodhooh put the race to bed with a 13.53s split between 2f-1f pole, a sectional only matched by eventual runner-up Jade De Grugy (13.56s). 

However, she didn’t exactly fire through the line (15.00s final furlong) and may have been flattered by her length winning margin as Jade De Grugy clocked a 14.71s final furlong after being positioned further back in the field in the early stages due to two jumping mistakes. If you ran that race again and granted every horse a clean round, the result may have been reversed.

The same could be said for the following Stayers’ Hurdle, which was won by 33/1 longshot Home By The Lee on his fifth attempt at taking this esteemed prize. Joseph O’Brien’s veteran was always well placed as the field went at near-optimum pace from start to finish, which put extra emphasis on vital forward track position.

Home By The Lee had plenty left in the tank as he held off all-comers in a gritty battle up the Cheltenham Hill. However, I believe it is fair to suggest that he was the fourth-best horse in that field with two specific rivals being clearly unsuited by the pace setup and one other opponent evidently not staying the distance.

Those foes were Kabral Du Mathan, Ballyburn and Bob Olinger, who filled three of the final four positions for much of this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle before making bold bids coming down the hill and into the homestraight. 

Kabral Du Mathan showcased the best acceleration of the trio with a four-furlong split of 50.72s between the six-furlong pole and two-furlong pole, which ranked top out of any horse in the field. However, making an early move on a horse’s first try over a stamina-sapping trip is fraught with danger, and it evidently took its toll as he weakened tamely inside the final furlong to end with a pedestrian 17.05s furlong and final finishing speed of 20.6mph. A drop in trip is needed.

Ballyburn and Bob Olinger, however, stayed the trip particularly well but had inexplicably tough tasks as they were asked to make up six and five lengths respectively on leader and eventual winner Home By The Lee in the matter of just two furlongs. Ballyburn clocked the fastest sectionals in both of the final two furlongs (14.53s and 15.59s) for a FSP of 104.49%, but he was still beaten a length-and-a-quarter into second.

Much like the Mares’ Hurdle earlier on Thursday’s card, the Ryanair Chase had an undertone of disappointment due to the late withdrawal of Fact To File. Jonbon, who doesn’t particularly handle the fences at Cheltenham, was sent off a questionable favourite at 2/1 and eventually finished second-best behind Heart Wood, who provided Henry de Bromhead with his first winner of the week.

There wasn’t much strength in depth in this year’s Ryanair and only Heart Wood was able to sustain his run from start to finish with a 102.78% FSP. No other horse in the field earned anything higher than 100.5% as they plodded their way up the hill in a slow final furlong (16.87s final furlong for third-placed Banbridge was as quick as Heart Wood’s foes could manage). My figures suggest that Heart Wood earned the lowest rating for winning the Ryanair in the last 10 years, and you would imagine that Fact To File may have confirmed his dominance had he lined up.

Meetmebythesea (Jack Richards) and Supremely West (Pertemps Final) proved good handicap winners on Thursday’s card, as did Wilful (County Hurdle) on Friday. Barton Snow’s Hunter Chase victory is another worthy of note given the poise shown in the saddle from Henry Crow - I thought he was Paul Carberry in disguise for much of the race! 

However, the main talking point on Friday was the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A race that looked wide-open and difficult to assess on paper turned out to be anything but as Gaelic Warrior, winner of the 2m Arkle in 2024, blitzed the field over 3m2½f to prove his versatility, talent and adaptability on the biggest stage.

Equine greatness comes in all forms and I’d argue that Gaelic Warrior was a little way off it prior to this year’s festival despite his five previous Grade 1 victories. But when a staying chaser routs the field by upwards of eight lengths in the manner in which Gaelic Warrior did, it is difficult to contest that he is an elite performer. It was reminiscent of Galopin Des Champs’ victory in 2023 and he earned a very similar rating as a result. 

Despite racing keenly in the early part of the race even though the pace was faster than optimum, Gaelic Warrior still had plenty in the tank to sprint up the hill as he recorded a 108.68% FSP thanks to a pair of sub-15-second sectionals in the final two furlongs (14.48s/14.97s). No other horse in the field posted one furlong below 15 seconds to close out their race.

For all that Gaelic Warrior deserved the headlines, it is worth noting that Jango Baie performed admirably in second and he certainly proved his stamina on his first attempt at the Gold Cup trip. He was clocked at 27.78mph crossing the line, which was the fastest of any horse in the field, and there was obviously still some petrol left. The same could be said for third-placed Inothewayurthinkin, who jumped poorly and was never given a chance, but flew home for a 106.60% FSP.

Gaelic Warrior’s Cheltenham Gold Cup victory was categorically the best equine jumps performance that we have seen this season. With Aintree and Punchestown on the horizon, it will be interesting to see if his position at the top of the rankings gets challenged. At this stage it appears unlikely.