Expert Analysis

On its biggest weekend, Churchill Downs belonged to two young trainers who once formed an alliance: Chad Brown and Cherie DeVaux.  

Rewind back to early 2018 and you will have found DeVaux working as the top assistant to Brown at his Saratoga barns. She cared for several of his leading lights, most notably five-time Grade 1 scorer Lady Eli, who was retired following a rare disappointing performance in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf after a stellar racing career.  

During their eight-year spell together, Brown and DeVaux rocketed up the ranks to become one of the most successful young training alliances in North America. To prove that, a third consecutive Eclipse Award for ‘Outstanding Trainer’ was awarded to Brown at the end of 2018. 

Despite their success, however, DeVaux wanted to go out on her own that spring. Eight years later the pair plundered the two biggest races in Kentucky. 

Brown was the first to celebrate as he sent out Always A Runner to win the 2026 Kentucky Oaks on Friday night. Heavily backed into 5/1 from 12/1 in the days leading up to the race, the daughter of Gun Runner bellied her lack of experience to outfinish West Coast shippers Meaning and Explora and retain her unbeaten record, consequently providing Brown with his first winner of the fillies’ Classic. 

The opening quarter of a much-anticipated KY Oaks was run in 23.08s, very similar (0.01s slower) to what we saw in Pretty Mischievous’ renewal in 2023, the most recent edition to be run on a ‘fast’ main track. However, pacesetters Explora and Dazzling Dame kept their foot on the gas down the backstraight and ended up running a half-mile in 46.85s (23.78s between 2f-4f), slightly faster than the 46.96s posted three years ago. 

Another fast 25.04s split around the turn softened up the aforementioned pacesetters on what was a pretty speed-favouring track and allowed for the stalkers to move into contention. But it was hard work even for those in the sweetspot of the race, and only Meaning (eventual runner-up) and Always A Runner could throw down substantial challenges. 

Once Ortiz asked Brown’s charge to stretch with a quarter of a mile to go, she responded kindly with a 12.36s penultimate furlong (0.31s faster than her closest purser, equivalent of two lengths) and backed that up with a final furlong of 12.89s.  

To win the big dirt races you have to outlast your opposition, and Always A Runner posted the fastest final two furlongs of the race. Her final time of 1:48.82s was the fastest Kentucky Oaks since 2020, and 0.95s (~six lengths) quicker than Pretty Mischievous in 2023. 

Brown, who compared Always A Runner to a “sportscar” in her training early last week, showed more emotion and glee in the aftermath of the Kentucky Oaks than every other interview he has conducted all year. A normally steely character finally achieved one of his goals. Just 23 hours later, his understudy did the same.  

Fast-run Derby

The 2026 Kentucky Derby was billed as one of the most wide-open renewal in recent memory. With the untimely injury to Brown’s Paladin, who would have been the public’s choice had he lined up, in the build-up to the race, it was difficult to work out what may happen. One thing was certain: there was going to be a fast early pace. 

That was confirmed when Japanese challenger Danon Bourbon blitzed to the front alongside West Coast challenger So Happy, who caused a whole heap of interference at the start, and UAE contender Six Speed. They clocked 22.68s through the first quarter of a mile. Interestingly, Six Speed posted the fastest furlong from any horse at any point in the whole race in the second furlong. 

Pressure began to mount with a half-mile time of 46.44s, 0.41s faster than the Oaks (run over a furlong shorter) 24 hours earlier. Anything sub 47-seconds is considered suicidal and, although it wasn’t the eyecatching beginning that we saw in the 2022 edition that eventually led to Rich Strike causing a tremendous shock from out of the clouds (45.36s four-furlong split), it was enough to glance back in the field to see who might run home best of all. 

That horse was Golden Tempo. Jose Ortiz had him settled a whopping 17-and-a-half lengths off the leaders after just four furlongs and clocked a much more sensible 49.53s as a result. For all that he was out of the television screen, smart and patient rides win big races.  

After a lot of scrambling and bumping down the back straight and on the turn for home, the eye was once again drawn to the closers. The 100/1 longshot Ocelli, a maiden going into the Kentucky Derby, was first to make his move with a 12.46s furlong that saw him move from 10th to fourth. He then hit the front, only for the Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade, who was impeded by the aforementioned So Happy in the early stages, and eventual winner Golden Tempo to gallop past him inside the final few strides. 

Rather than a wicked final furlong, the Kentucky Derby became a war of attrition. Who could keep going? Those on the pace ran themselves into the ground - shoutout to Danon Bourbon for finishing fifth - and those ridden efficiently were rewarded. A final time of 2:02.27s ranked 14th of 19 on fast tracks since the turn of the century. Nothing monumental, but perfect for the plodders. 

I don’t think the jubilant Cherie DeVaux, who became the first female trainer to win the ‘Run for the Roses’, cared about the final time. Neither did Jose Ortiz, who may just remember this weekend for the rest of his life.