Expert Analysis

A 50/1 shock winner of the opening Group 1 contest, quickly following 33/1 winner Triple Time who obliged in 2023. The race produced a fast time (third-fastest in the last twenty years), quicker than recent winners Baaeed and Palace Pier who also won on ground that was officially Good to Firm. That was largely down to the early pace, which was strong, and that the winner got an efficient ride from the rear, sitting off that fast early speed. Only the winner and the second managed a finishing speed percentage over 100%, confirming the fact that all the others were slowing at the finish.

TEN BOB TONY may have been helped by an excellent judge of pace from Kieran Shoemark, but it was still a clear career best as he followed up his recent win at Epsom on Derby weekend. That marginal Epsom win was only a Group 3, but he took a jump forward here. He was held up at the rear early on, before making ground rather easily when asked to close two furlongs out on the stands side of the main group. He was able to maintain that effort, hitting the front with 100 yards left to run and staying on. I think it is fair to say he benefitted from others underperforming for a variety of reasons, but I doubt connections will care too much.

MORE THUNDER may have missed his chance at a Group 1 win as this race set up well for him. He was off the pace as he usually is, but more midfield than further back. While he appeared to be going as quickly as he could in the early stages, one felt his customary late thrust was always going to arrive. He switched in-field approaching the final two furlongs, and I wonder if he had held his original line and pulled towards the stands side, would the result have been different. He stayed on in the final furlong to grab second close home.

OPERA BALLO emerges with credit here, despite only finishing third. He went fast early on and was quicker than par for both of the first two furlongs. While he got a little breather in mid race, the damage was done and on this stiff mile it proved to be too much for him inside the final furlong. Opera Ballo only gave way to two more patiently ridden and was clear of the fourth. He had looked progressive prior to this, and I certainly wouldn’t view this negatively. The Sussex Stakes at Goodwood was nominated as his next potential target and that should suit him better, although it is likely to be a stronger contest with the Classic generation potentially joining in.

ZEUS OLYMPIOS finished fourth, although a bit behind the first three who pulled clear. It was possibly a little below his two latest efforts behind Opera Ballo and Notable Speech. He may continue to run well at the highest level but could find it difficult to win one, particularly as he seems to have levelled off in terms of his progress.

DAMYSUS was again found out at a mile at the highest level, although perhaps better here than in the Lockinge. He travelled well into the race and looked like a danger a couple of furlongs out but faded in the closing stages.

NOTABLE SPEECH disappointed at Ascot again and the evidence is stacking up to suggest he doesn’t like it here. The strong pace here drew the finish out of him and he weakened late on. A return to an easier mile could see him produce something like his Lockinge run.

DOCKLANDS produced a rare poor effort at Ascot. Held up off the strong early pace, he never landed a blow and faded in the final furlong.

CICERO’S GIFT was unable to reproduce his Group 1 winning form from last October here. He never looked comfortable on this quick ground and was beaten a long way out.

FIRST CONQUEST was deployed as a pacemaker but struggled to lead Opera Ballo, before hanging and weakening a couple of furlongs out.