James Flaherty

Published 09:27 07/11 - all selections online

It is the final day of the flat season at Doncaster with a competitive card, live on Sky Sports Racing. The two listed races are difficult puzzles to solve while the handicaps aren’t exactly easy either! The ground there is currently Good to Soft, Soft in places.

The Virgin Bet November Handicap (3.25) is the race that interested me most from a betting point of view. In particular, I thought the last two winners of the contest offered a bit of value, and I came down on the side of the 2024 winner, LORD MELBOURNE.

He’s had a relatively poor season by his own standards, but Ralph Beckett’s horses are having a better end to the season. The selection bounced back to form at York last time when a close third off a mark of 95. That is the same race that the early favourite for this race, Nobody Knows, contested and he was four and a half lengths behind the selection.

Lord Melbourne was only sixth in this race last year trying to defend his crown, but that was off a mark of 103 after he bolted up at Epsom the previous month from a mark of 94. He has been campaigned more carefully this time and I think this might have been a long-term plan.

His overall profile has seen him win off marks of 77, 80, 87, 90 and 94. I hope that 97 might be the next number in that progressive sequence. It is certainly a fair mark if he can produce something like his best form and I think he is a solid each-way play, with several firms paying six places.

The final race on the card, and of the flat season - the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap (3.55) - is devilishly difficult, but I am going to take a wild each-way swing on one at a massive price. STRIKE RED might be an eight-year-old, but he is handicapped accordingly now and has already won twice this season.

Interestingly (or perhaps not if you have a more exciting life), his best form has come in the second half of the year historically. Nine of his ten wins have come from July onwards, with five of those after the 1^st of September.

This season, he managed to win in April under this rider, admittedly off a 3lbs lower mark than he runs off today. He followed that in July off 2lbs higher, suggesting he is certainly not in decline, despite his age.

He caught my eye at York last time, when seventh in a strong contest. The second and third have both won easily since. Advertised, who fared best of those drawn high, was one of those and Strike Red was only a neck and a head behind the other pair that finished ahead of him from the horses that raced close to the stands rail.

While it is hard to be bullish about his chances, I thought he was well overpriced and I could see him hitting the frame at least.

Over at Aintree, it is all about the National Hunt season as it starts to hit full stride. Unfortunately, some notable non-runners (a common theme so far in the jumps) have detracted slightly from the spectacle, but there are still some good contests. They have put 7mm of water on overnight, and the ground was described as Good to Soft, Good in places this morning.

I am looking forward to the Rising Stars Novices’ Chase. No Drama This End tackles fences for the first time, but faces solid opposition, particularly in the form of Talk To The Man, who is already off the mark over the larger obstacles.

The closest I came to a selection was Sans Bruit on his return to his beloved Aintree. Paul Nicholls has come out swinging in recent days, and his last eleven runners have seen five winners and three seconds.

Sans Bruit has had wind surgery since being beaten here in his bid for a third Red Rum win back in April when he weakened up the straight. As a result, he is back down to the mark that he ran off when he tore the same race apart in April 2025.

He faces competition for the lead here though, and a potentially very well handicapped rival in the form of Kadastral for the all-conquering Skelton team. The possibility of low sun (mostly cloudy forecast) and fences being taken out would also inconvenience Sans Bruit. He just about gets two miles and any added emphasis on stamina could find him out.

I’m holding fire on him, for now, anyway.