Published 27th February

The Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase has easily been my favourite handicap at the Cheltenham Festival from a betting perspective. Many may feel the same as it tends to be one of those where the winner is found in the top five or six of the betting, and rarely does it produce a result that is hard to explain. Generally, that is because recent good form is important in this race statistically.

In previous years, I have often leaned on the angle I mentioned in my Festival Edges column elsewhere the At The Races Cheltenham Megasite. That is British-trained runners aged nine or older that have finished in the first four in the race before. That would have produced two winners in the last five years – Vintage Clouds in 2021 and Corach Rambler in 2023.

Last year, that trend led me to Happygolucky, who finished fourth at a big price. This year’s qualifiers are Myretown (last year’s winner) and Monbeg Genius (third in the brilliant renewal of 2022 behind Corach Rambler and Fastorslow).

I also advised Myretown at 16-1 last year as I was willing to forgive his mishap at Windsor and he arrived here off the back of an impressive confidence building win. He was also a much bigger price this time last year. There is more forgiveness required this time though and while I wouldn’t rule him out, he isn’t top of my list this time around.

Jagwar held that position for a long time. I like plenty about him bar his price, having flagged this race for him after his defeat here on his seasonal return. I thought his second on Trials Day was another good run, pulling well clear of the third. He is one I may revisit nearer the time as I think his current price will be available Tuesday morning, so there is no need to get involved now.

In the same colours, Iroko’s connections threw a real spanner in the works on Thursday with the announcement that Iroko would be targeted at the race. I fancied him for this race last year pretty much throughout last winter and he looks sure to go close.

I’m not sure they will both run here, so perhaps Jagwar will be re-directed to the Plate. I feel like that would be a major vote of confidence in Iroko, so it will be interesting what they do. There is a fair chance I’ll play one of them on the day.

At the current prices though and for the purposes of this column, the two I am drawn to are IN D’OR and Leave Of Absence. Both horses tick the statistical boxes that I look for in this contest. They are UK-trained, have finished in the top three in at least one of their last three starts, have course form and have less than ten chase starts.

They have also both won over three miles (which Jagwar hasn’t). Furthermore, they recorded an RPR 5lbs higher than their official rating in the last year, like nine out of the last ten winners. 

Marginal preference is for Fergal O’Brien’s gelding, who ran well in a very strong National Hunt Chase at the Festival last year. He travelled strongly into the race before not quite seeing out the marathon trip. He is just one pound higher now and that form is red hot, with eight of the field winning handicaps since and the winner considered a leading contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

That was the only time he has been out of the first three in six starts over fences and I don’t think it was a bad effort. If one was to exclude that effort on the basis that he didn’t stay, he has been progressing with each run over fences.

He changed yards after being sold by David Maxwell in his dispersal sale. After a promising return to action, he was a good third in another hot contest at Ascot in January, behind The Jukebox Kid and Montregard. The winner won a Grade 2 novice since, while the second also boosted the form off what was effectively a 6lbs higher mark.

He looks well treated based on that form, and he is still lightly raced. His RPR of 144 for that latest effort suggests that he has some scope in his mark of 135 and he looks highly likely to run his race. I like the fact that he has been freshened up since and his form figures over fences off a break of 50 days or more read 113.

The more the ground dries out, the better his chance so hopefully the long-range forecast is right and I think we will start on good to soft ground. I hope he can squeeze in as a lot of those above him in the weights look likely to run. We have the safety net of NRNB available though and 16- makes plenty of appeal. It probably won’t be my only play in the race by the off, but it is the first one that I have locked in.