Published 22 January

There’s no prize on offer for recalling this, but can anyone remember the last time we entered a new calendar year with an ante-post Cheltenham Gold Cup market offering 6-1 the field?

That’s the surreal position we find ourselves in with seven weeks still to go until the Festival, and it presents punters with a rare opportunity to nail their colours to the mast far earlier than is usually comfortable in this most demanding of races.

The betting is currently headed by last year’s first two home, Inothewayurthinkin and Galopin Des Champs. It felt last March as though dual winner Galopin Des Champs may finally have been feeling his age. He never looked at ease on the drying ground and, crucially, the extra gear that had previously carried him so relentlessly up the Cheltenham hill was missing.

He didn’t need to improve to resume winning ways when signing off at Punchestown, and this season has followed a familiar pattern. As last term, he was some way below par on his reappearance in the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Improvement is expected, and should he regain the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival, he will once again be a clear favourite to reclaim his crown in March.

That said, only the great Kauto Star has ever regained the Gold Cup, and no ten-year-old has won the race since Cool Dawn in 1998 - sobering statistics for supporters of the reigning champion.

As for Inothewayurthinkin, it’s worth remembering that in January 2025, even lining up in a Gold Cup looked far-fetched. He was the gamble of the race last season and fully justified that support when seeing off Galopin Des Champs. However, he has looked a shadow of that horse in two outings this term.

While it’s not implausible that connections have been plotting a return to peak form in March, there are two major concerns. 

Firstly, trainer Gavin Cromwell is enduring a horrid season, with his strike-rate well down on previous years. Secondly, how much did that Gold Cup victory take out of his stable star? He was notably kept away from the Grand National - a race in which he would have been exceptionally well treated - and on this season’s evidence, a performance north of a 180 rating is fantasy stuff. At around 6-1, he makes little appeal.

The leading novices from last season are headed by The Jukebox Man, the gutsy King George winner who boasts solid Festival form and remains open to improvement. That Kempton form may prove key, with three of the first four home set to renew rivalry.

Gaelic Warrior, a former Arkle winner, is tempting at around 10-1. I’m not convinced he was at his best on Boxing Day and he remains unexposed as a stayer. Jango Baie, another former Arkle winner, finished fourth on his first start over three miles and should improve for a stiffer test, but odds around 7-1 leave little margin for error. That trio were covered by less than a length at Kempton, underlining how closely matched they are.

That brings us to GREY DAWNING, who looks a standout each-way proposition at 12-1. He ran a career-best when landing the Grade 1 Betfair Chase on his seasonal return, reversing last season’s form with Royal Pagaille in decisive fashion. A gruelling race there proved his undoing in 2024, but Dan Skelton has learned the lesson and adopted a more patient approach this time around.

Already a Festival winner, Grey Dawning’s form is not far off those above him in the market. Provided he comes through his intended prep in the Cotswold Chase on Trials Day, he should line up in March as a leading contender - and one offering far better value than many of his rivals.