Total Performance Data tips

Published 20.05 - 10/03

Looking at Wednesday’s BetMGM Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.40) and the one that stands out is STORM HEART, who was sent off as the favourite for the Triumph Hurdle in 2024. He finished fifth that day, but in hindsight both Majborough and Kargese have shown themselves to be top-class performers and I don’t think Storm Heart’s run should be viewed too harshly.

He only ran once last season when second to McLaurey at the Dublin Racing Festival and he can probably be considered an unlucky loser in that race given that he ran the fastest final furlong in the race in 15.6s and was closing all the way to the line after being given quite a lot to do in the home straight.

On both starts this season he has been highly impressive, winning at Limerick over Christmas and then landing the Red Mills Trial at Gowran last month. In both races he clocked the fastest final two-furlong splits in the field and given the way he has hit the line recently, this big field should really suit.

Although his best form has come on Soft ground, he did win a Flat maiden on ground that was close to Good to Firm at Mont-de-Marsan during his time with Philippe Sogorb in France and I have no real concerns about him on the drying ground.

He has had just seven starts over hurdles, winning three of them and remains very lightly raced and capable of further improvement. A mark of 151 isn’t a gift from the handicapper, but I would argue that he has achieved more than Jimmy Du Seuil had at this stage of his career when he won this off a mark of 146 last season.

Willie Mullins has a decent record with his unexposed horses in the Festival handicap hurdles and I want to have Storm Heart on side to boost that record.

Festival form can be worth its weight in gold and for that reason I want to be with the winner of this race 12 months ago, JAZZY MATTY, as he bids for a third success at Cheltenham in the Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (4.40).

He won the Fred Winter as a juvenile, but it is his form in this race last year that makes him stand out. That race was run on ground described as Good to Soft, so the conditions are likely to be very similar on Wednesday.

He came from mid-division that day, closing to lead between the final two fences as he clocked a race best 14.76s for the penultimate furlong to hit the front. That late burst saw him record the fastest late speed in the field at 29.48 mph as he ultimately held on relatively comfortably from Unexpected Party. He is higher in the weights this year, but having been campaigned over hurdles ever since, he does remain relatively lightly raced as a chaser with three wins from his eight starts over the larger obstacles.

When a horse improves over fences, it can sometimes leave them with a tempting hurdles mark as they are perceived to be well treated. However, in this case I would argue that the improvement in Jazzy Matty came because he was a better horse over fences and so I am not too concerned by the fact that he hasn’t been able to “take advantage” of his lower hurdles mark.

He has run some decent races, most notably when fifth behind French Ship in October, a race that has worked out particularly well. It would appear that his connections made the decision earlier in the season to come back and have another go at this race and I thought there were signs on his latest start at Thurles that he was being readied for one big day.

That run came behind the very progressive Eachtotheirown, but having been ridden away from the pace, Jazzy Matty seemed unlikely to close on a winner who made every yard of the running and controlled the pace. However, the sectional times show that Jazzy Matty was faster than the winner in furlongs 12 and 13 and I am happy enough with the pace that he showed around that tight track to think he is capable of reaching peak form at the festival once again.

Looking ahead and we have a very difficult Thursday card to try and find some solid prices to get after the competitive nature of the first couple of days, this card does look a little more punter friendly. 

For what it’s worth, I felt that both Wodhooh and Fact To File would be very hard to beat against their respective rivals in the Mares’ Hurdle and the Ryanair and wouldn’t put anyone off the short-priced double. That didn’t leave me with too many races to get excited over at this stage, but there was a horse in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (4.40) who caught the eye on his way up the handicap ranks.

I have been keen on Melbourne Shamrock for the Pertemps for a while and once he qualified last month, I felt like he was going to be my main play in this race. He is certainly unexposed and having missed some time as a novice hurdler, it looks like a long-term plan from Emmet Mullins and his team.

However, he qualified on deep ground at Navan in February and just held on from Minella Sixo, who was 0.39s faster in the final furlong. The more the ground dries, the more my enthusiasm is cooling for him and when I had another look at this race, I found a decent case could be made for CHAMPAGNE CHIC.

Jeremy Scott’s six-year-old has taken a huge step forwards this season and after impressive wins at Wincanton and then at Haydock in his qualifier, he comes into this race on a decent upward curve and a mark of 131 could underestimate him as a stayer.

He reached a top speed of 32.3 mph on Good to Soft ground at Haydock as he closed all the way up the home straight to win going away. He was the fastest horse in each of the final three furlong splits (14.54, 14.90 and 16.51s) and recorded a run-out speed of 27.74 mph, which was 5% faster than any of the other runners.

That was just his eighth start and only his fourth in handicap company, so it is perfectly feasible to think that there will be more improvement to come. The changes to the qualification rules have made it harder to get a progressive horse into this race, but he looks to be capable of more improvement than most and so I want to be with him each-way.

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.