Total Performance Data tips

Published 10:30 - 08/04

The 2026 Randox Grand National Festival kicks off on Thursday, with the Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (1.45) . There is very little between Minella Study, Selma De Vary and MAESTRO CONTI based on their meeting in the Triumph Hurdle last month, but I am still firmly with the Skelton runner to confirm the form.

A lot was made of Harry Skelton cutting across Paul Townend on the stands side rail in the Triumph hurdle, but Maestro Conti was the faster horse in each of the final 3 furlongs, and I would take the view that Selma de Vary lacked the necessary speed to go through that gap and hold the rail. 

Maestro Conti recorded the fastest finishing speed of the three at 102.19% and may well have got closer to the winner (Apolon De Charnie) if he hadn’t made a mess of the last flight and lost momentum at a crucial stage. He had a longer stride length than Minella Study and rallied to regain second place with a final furlong split of 16.04s (Minella Study 16.32s) and a race best run-out speed of 26.22 mph. 

I have always been of the opinion that the longer straight at Aintree would be more suitable than Cheltenham and, if anything, I would expect Maestro Conti to widen the gap between himself and Minella Study on Thursday.

Looking ahead to the Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40), SANS BRUIT has won this race for the last two seasons and although he is still 3 lbs above last season’s winning mark, his record at this track at this time of year is too good to ignore, especially with Harry Cobden aboard. 

His form in the month of April currently reads as 2-11-213-11 and he has recorded the fastest top speed in each of the last two renewals of this race. Last year he dominated from the front, clocking a race best 13.84s for the second furlong to get himself to the front. From there, he controlled the pace in a race where he recorded a finishing speed of 106.3% and in what looks likely to be identical conditions, Sans Bruit seems likely to get the perfect setup to complete the hat-trick. 

We haven’t seen him since finishing fourth behind Highland’s Legacy at Windsor in January, however, that effort came on soft ground and given that his peak average stride length figure of 19.84 ft was over a foot shorter than everything else in the field, I think we can put his 10 length defeat down to the conditions more than anything else. 

His jumping certainly deteriorated in the latter stages of the race as he lost an average of 16.1% of his speed over fences in the final third of the race. The handicapper has given him another 2 lbs back as a result and he looks to have been saved for the better ground and, more importantly, this race ever since. 

Paul Nicholls was operating at a 14.5% strike rate back in January and that has increased to 24.4% over the last 14 days (at the time of writing). Therefore, with the conditions and the yard form in his favour, Sans Bruit looks to be the horse to be with in this year’s Red Rum Handicap Chase.

Published 11:30 - 09/04

Moving on to the second day of the Festival, I am focusing on the Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle at 2.55  and I’m kicking off my selections with SOBER GLORY. This horse ran a huge race in the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival and provided he is over those exertions, I would expect him to confirm the strength of that form on Friday. 

He set decent fractions in front that day in a race where the winner recorded a time that was 10s quicker than the TPD expected time for the race on Good to Soft ground. He was faster than both Old Park Star and Mydaddypaddy in the preceding quarter of a mile that led to the straight and had he not made an error at the last, he may well have got closer to the winner. 

The interference with Mydaddypaddy may have masked what was ultimately a very good front-running display and he was over a second clear of everything else in the field. Old Park Star did leave him behind in the closing stages and was 0.52s quicker in the final furlong, but he isn’t here and with what looked likely to be a soft lead, I think that Sober Glory should prove to be very hard to pass. 

The Supreme form took a boost when Koktail Brut won at Fairyhouse last weekend and that should be added to on Friday.

One of the most eye-catching runners in the handicap hurdles at the Cheltenham festival for me was POURQUOI PAS PAPA and I made up my mind after his fourth placed finish in the Fred Winter that I wanted to be with him next time he ran - that happens to be in the Debenhams Handicap Hurdle (5.15).

Pourquoi Pas Papa sat behind Saratoga in the Fred Winter on the inside, having ground all the way around the turns. That strategy worked well, but it meant that he had to switch around tired horses around the final turn (those horses eventually finished 11th and 19th) and that brief loss of momentum cost him any chance of winning the race. 

Having jumped the final flight in seventh place, he finished extremely strongly under Harry Cobden. His final furlong time of 14.41s was just 0.07s slower than the winner and he recorded a run-out speed of 27.67 mph, the fastest of the first 5 horses to cross the line. 

Racing along the inside of the old course over hurdles at Cheltenham is always a risky strategy and whilst Saratoga was a worthy winner on the day, I do think that Pourquoi Pas Papa would have finished closer if he had been able to get a clear run into the home straight. The handicapper has given him just a lb rise in the weights to 129 and on the evidence of his Cheltenham run, that would look to be very workable. 

He was entered in the Premier Handicap over the intermediate trip, but Paul Nicholls has chosen to run him in this race instead and I think a well run race over two miles, with the benefit of his 4-year-old allowance, should play to his strengths. 

You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.

The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.