Published 9:04 - all selections online
Tell The Tale was a winner on his chase debut at Ffos Las last time, but the winning time was outside the TPD Expected time for the grade and he looked very one paced in the closing stages. On the balance of his hurdles form, he looks to have something to find as he takes a rise in grade. Instead, I want to be with CATWALK GIRL (1:16 Market Rasen) who was a winner over fences at Huntingdon in May on her only previous start over fences.
That was a small field contest, but she jumped nicely and once asked to go and win her race around the turn, she pulled comfortably clear with a race best late speed figure of 28.95mph. Although she was beaten on her final start, that came over hurdles at Hereford just 5 days after the Huntingdon success and she can probably be forgiven for that below par effort.
The cheekpieces worn over hurdles at Hereford are quickly dispensed with on her return and whilst her fitness needs to be taken on trust, Max Comley is currently operating at a 30% strike rate and a mark of 110, with James King taking off a further 3lb, looks very workable.
She ran well on her first start for the yard in 2025 and has plenty of experience from three runs in point-to-points for Rachel O’Neill, so there are reasons to think she will take to this and against horses that are making their debut over fences and/or yet to win under rules.
Reflection of You improved gradually as the season went on last season and does have a win over this distance on her CV from Musselburgh over Christmas. She ran well on her return from an absence of 235 days at Perth in September, but she faded after the last as her average stride length shortened considerably and a final furlong split of 15.62s was more than a second slower than the winner.
That field is zero from eight since and whilst I think she is capable off her current mark, she may need this run before she is back to peak form. Instead, I think this is the best opportunity that Dan Skelton has found for BURNING EMBERS (3:01 Market Rasen) to break her maiden tag.
She ran four times in the space of eight weeks in the Spring. That was clearly a project to get her handicapped for the new season and after a pipe-opening run over the minimum trip at Chepstow at the start of last month, she was immediately stepped up in distance at Plumpton when she was sent off at an SP of 6/1, her shortest starting price since her debut. Harry Skelton tracked the pace that day, but just got caught in a pocket around the bottom turn.
When she straightened for home, she rallied well to record the fastest final split time and run-out speed having been beaten less than 2 lengths by Mild Magic. The winner ran well at Fontwell last week to suggest that this form is solid enough for the grade and the longer straight at Market Rasen should help Burning Embers to finish her race.
Losing an average of just 4.9% of her speed over her obstacles, she was the most efficient jumper in the field at Plumpton too and Dan Skelton must surely be capable of getting her to win from a mark of 90.
ADAM MILLS'S BEST BETS
1:16 MARKET RASEN
CATWALK GIRL (16-1 & 14-1 general)
3:01 MARKET RASEN
BURNING EMBERS (3-1 bet365, William Hill, 11-4 general)
You can find sectional times, stride data, speed statistics and jumping performance metrics on the RESULTS page of attheraces.com.
The global database of sectional times, stride data and performance metrics is available through Total Performance Data.
