Once the initial rush over the first couple of fences was over Sean Bowen manged to get Haiti Couleurs to the front to set what was only a moderate gallop according to the attheraces.com sectionals. This in turn resulted in a speed test in the closing stages which was massively in favour of Gaelic Warrior. The Gold Cup winner was around half a dozen lengths quicker from the last to the line compared with Dinoblue (who won the Mares’ Chase over an intermediate trip earlier on the card) and this level of pace proved to be far too much for the two horses to chase him home.
When a horse wins in such ‘out of the ordinary fashion’ it is always worth considering what circumstances came together to produce such a unique looking performance. After all, there is likely to be little upside in supporting such a horse in the short term.
Jango Baie was the least favoured of the principals by the three-mile speed test at Kempton in the King George and was also arguably significantly disadvantaged by the way this race unfolded – at least in comparison to the speedier winner. The reigning champion, Inothewayurthinkin, finished a staying on third and would need much softer ground to show his best whilst the fourth horse home, Grey Dawning, looked like a blatant non-stayer. Of course, this does not mean that Gaelic Warrior was not a mightily impressive looking winner at the line as he was clearly very pleasing to the eye. What it might mean, however, is that even if conditions are not quite so much in his favour on another day, whatever he happens to achieve in the short term, he is likely to do so whilst trading at shorter odds than his overall profile merits. The eulogies offered by the TV pundits usually help shorten the potential odds of the recipient next time and this could certainly be the case with Gaelic Warrior. Softer ground and a stiffer test of stamina might easily produce a different outcome on another day and I think, in cases like this, it often pays to remain open minded and consider the overall profile of each participant rather than get swept away with the inevitable hype and media attention attached to this most recent performance despite how undoubtedly impressive it appeared to be.
At Kempton on Boxing Day he boxed on after being outpaced in the home straight. I think he stayed on in similar fashion here despite being unsuited to the slower pace and the relative sprint finish. This in turn may have accentuated his losing margins.
After never being placed to challenge he stayed on strongly without ever appearing likely to trouble the winner. His jumping lacked fluency for much of the contest and he also edged out to his right at many fences. On another day, on a much softer surface, we may well see plenty more improvement in him now that he seems to be on the way back after a disappointing early part to the season.
Although he did not make any serious errors, at the same time, his two most obvious mistakes came at the 15th and 16th fences which was probably an important part of the race. That is not to suggest that he may have finished much closer with a completely clear round of jumping, far from it in fact, as he did appear to blatantly run out of stamina in the closing stages. I would be surprised if we saw him being aimed at three mile plus races in the near future.
In December he dropped himself right out before staying on nicely for second spot in a Cheltenham handicap on his seasonal debut. He did something broadly similar here and it was no surprise to hear his connections offering the Aintree Grand National as his obvious next race. He is a classy horse at his best and one that has probably just lost a little pace in his recent races.
I am not sure if the general form of the Gordon Elliott yard at this festival played any part in his tame finish. After all, he was only beaten by horses rated higher than him so this is, just as likely, as good as he is.
Post-race his trainer stated that he had made a respiratory noise. He did drop away quickly from the second last fence in the style of a horse experiencing some kind of physical issue. Only time will tell if this was the main or sole reason for his disappointing finish.
Although he managed to dictate the pace from as early as the second fence, I don’t think he ever looked particularly happy out in front. Post-race his rider could offer no explanation for this poor form shown.
