The Kevin Blake Take

In-depth analysis of the handicap marks of the Irish-trained entries for the Cheltenham Festival

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, I’m not talking about the emergence of the snowdrops and daffodils. Nor the playing of lambs and foals in ever-greener fields. I am of course talking about the unveiling of the weights for the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival. Data nerds and parochial commentators, assemble!

Four Cheltenham Festivals have now passed since the initiation of the Quality Jumps Review. One key recommendation of this was to implement changes in how the BHA handicappers dealt with British-trained horses, having belatedly acknowledged that they had allowed their ratings as a group to inflate significantly over the previous 15 years or so. In practice, this has led to British-trained runners being introduced at lower initial marks and being dropped at greater speed through the season in an effort to lower the rating levels across the population.

The impact of these changes has been very evident since those processes kicked into action in September 2021. It has been very noticeable just how fast and how much the British handicappers have been willing to drop British-trained horses in the ratings. There have been extreme examples of this that have led to victories in Cheltenham Festivals handicaps, namely Global Citizen (dropped 15lb) in the 2022 Grand Annual, Third Wind (dropped 12lb) in the 2022 Pertemps Final, Faivoir (dropped 9lb) in the 2023 County Hurdle, and Unexpected Party (dropped 8lb in four runs) in the 2024 Grand Annual. And that’s before we even mention the infamously-sympathetic handicapping of late Langer Dan for three years in succession from 2022 to 2024…

Given that the British handicapping team stated all the way back in November 2022 that they felt their work in seeking to achieve “a greater degree of parity” between British and Irish-trained success in British handicap hurdles/chases had “largely been achieved”, one would have hoped that the need for dramatic interventions in terms of giving Irish-trained horses much higher marks than they hold in Ireland would have largely gone, but that hasn’t always been the case.

The change in methodologies and practices have been particularly relevant to this annual analysis, as while the British handicappers have made substantial downward revisions, the Irish handicappers have continued on as normal. While it is always dangerous - and indeed ill-advised - to put too much emphasis on small samples of races, the impacts of this seem to have translated to the results of the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival since then. British-trained runners won just two of the nine handicaps in 2021, but since the start of the handicapping changes they have won five of the nine handicaps in 2022, four of the nine handicaps in 2023, and five of the nine handicaps in 2024.

Last year saw substantial changes made to the race programme at the Cheltenham Festival, with the number of handicaps increasing by a third from nine to 12. This was great news for the wider cause of the fightback of British National Hunt racing against Irish dominance, as the more races that take place on the fields controlled by the British handicapper the better, right? However, it didn’t quite work out like that last year at least, with Irish-trained horses still winning seven of the 12 handicaps.

It is within that overall context that the comparative differentials between the Irish and British marks for the Irish-trained entries this year should be judged. Will the British handicapping team be content that their tilting of the playing table has gone far enough or will they continue to try and weigh down the raiders? Let’s see what the numbers say...

Firstly, let’s look at the Irish-trained juvenile hurdlers entered in the McCoy Contractors Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Historically, this has been the most volatile set of differentials within the sample...

Differentials in ratings for Irish juvenile hurdlers

The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years, so it isn’t a surprise that the differential has remained high. Mind, an unintended consequence of big differentials is that it leads to a smaller quantity of British-trained runners getting into the race. Only nine of the 22 runners in the last year’s renewal were trained in Britain, and as it stands only five of the top 22 in the weights for this year’s race are trained in Britain.

Of those at the front end of the market, Saratoga has been a focus horse for the race in recent weeks. He has been given a mark of 130, 5lb higher than his Irish mark and slightly above the average differential. While some might take the view that he perhaps showed a little bit more than might have been considered ideal in his latest run, it should be remembered that the exact same could have said about the likes of Band Of Outlaws, Brazil (a full-brother to Saratoga) and Puturhandstogether in their final runs before Cheltenham, but it didn’t stop any of them going on to win the race.

Joseph O’Brien has a particularly good record in the race, having won it on three of the six occasions he has had runners in it (12 runners in total). He has three entries this year in Kizlyar (+6 to 124), Glen To Glen (+5 to 129) and Dignam (+4 to 129).

Now, onto the chasers...

Differentials in ratings for Irish handicap chasers

In general, the record of British-trained handicap chasers has been the shining light in their performances in the handicaps at this meeting, so the rise to 4lb in 2022 was a huge surprise given the aforementioned change to how the British horses were being handicapped leading up to the meeting that year. Unsurprisingly, only two Irish-trained horses finished in first five in any of the four handicap chases at that meeting.

That very harsh intervention had been steadily rowed back in the years that followed, but it has gone back in the other direction this year having risen to 2.7lb. While only a marginal difference, it seems difficult to justify in the bigger picture of what has happened in British handicapping in recent years. It should be noted that I have not included differentials relating to the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase in these calculations, as the British and Irish handicappers treat these races very differently and so including them would skew the overall sample. Had they been included, however, the average differential would have been even higher.

In terms of individual cases, there are the usual examples that are a consequence of the British handicapping team treating horses with lower chase marks than hurdle marks differently to how the Irish handicapper deals with them. The biggest example of it this year is Karl Des Tourelles, who is 8lb higher in Britain than Ireland. Away from the likes of that and looking at examples of horses that have run well off higher marks in Britain this season, and thus would have expected a bigger-than-average differential, connections of Uhavemeinstitches (+6 to 136), Bossofthebrownies (+5 to 145) and Brave Fortune (+5 to 138) may all feel somewhat aggrieved for being singled out for heavier treatment.

I’ve saved what is always the juiciest group for last; the non-juvenile handicap hurdlers...

Differentials in ratings for non-juvenile Irish handicap hurdlers

As can be seen above, the differentials were initially trending downwards after the start of the aforementioned changes in British handicapping methodology in 2021 that sought to lower the levels of the ratings of British-trained runners. However, that trend came to an end last year, which seemed difficult to justify given those bigger-picture changes in Britain, and the levels have remained much the same this year.

In terms of individual cases, the biggest differential is that of Yeah Man (+10 to 133), and again is a consequence of the differing ways the British and Irish handicappers deal with horses that have lower marks over hurdles than over fences, and thus wasn't a surprise as such. Perhaps the most notable example of tough treatment is the Willie Mullins-trained Roc Dino, who has a very eye-catching profile but has been hit with a mark of 131 - 7lb in excess of his Irish mark.

To conclude, while there has been some steadying of the differentials, it is surprising to see the marks of Irish-trained chasers increase as they have this year. As previously mentioned, this analysis only captures differentials at a single point in time and doesn’t take account of the aforementioned drop in levels that the British handicappers have carried out in recent years. Given that we are four and a half years into that project, one would have hoped that more stability and consistency would be evident at this stage, and significant rises in average differentials are difficult to justify at this stage.

While there will always be different opinions taken on individual pieces of form by different handicappers, it has long been opined in this space that getting the two systems as close together as possible should be the goal. Unfortunately, progress on that front seems to have stalled. It isn’t just differences of opinion either, as very frustrating differences remain between systemic policies, such as what multiplier to use to convert French ratings into Irish/British ratings and how to treat hurdlers that have much higher marks over fences and vice versa. We have already seen examples of British and Irish handicappers finding an agreeable middle ground to unite their approach to matters such as weight-for-age, and really all of the above should be tackled in the interests of common sense.

Peace in our times in the contentious world of cross-border handicapping is a possibility if the will to achieve it is there, but progress seems to have slowed.

Thanks as always to Matt Tombs (@thespieler) for his help in compiling the above data.